中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

741
ABNT20 KNHC 301148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana.  This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

048
ABNT20 KNHC 310545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. Surface observations continue to show no signs of a
closed circulation. This system is expected to meander near the
coast through much of next week, and some slow development is
possible if it remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.  
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some slow
development of this system is possible through late next week while
it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form while it continues moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the system moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then continue across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle part of next
week. Later next week, environmental conditions appear to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is no longer expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions as the tropical wave moves westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312338
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Slow development is possible
as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser
Antilles on Monday.  Later next week, the disturbance is expected
to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form during that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

353
ABNT20 KNHC 010538
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
limited shower activity along and just offshore of the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger near the
coast through much of this week, and some slow development is
possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show some
signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the
disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on
Monday.  Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions will probably
become more conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form during that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore on
Monday.  Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development throughout the week while the system moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf. This system is expected to
meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and some slow
development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the
system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not
expected. Regardless, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding
across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in
organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to move
westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development while the system
moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle
and latter parts of the week, and a tropical depression could form
during that time. Regardless of development, this system could
result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore by
Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system throughout the week while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This system is
expected to meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and
some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By
Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland, and further
development is not expected.  Regardless, heavy rains could cause
some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the
upper Texas coast during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  The disturbance is expected to
move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then
cross the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea
during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a tropical
depression could form during that time.  Regardless of development,
this system could cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave is forecast to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa by Monday.  Thereafter, environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system throughout the week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast
continues to produce some disorganized shower activity near the
coast and over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. This system is expected to meander near the coast for the
next couple of days, and some slow development is possible if it
remains offshore. By Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland,
and further development is not expected.  Regardless, heavy rains
could cause some flash flooding across portions of the Texas coast
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles.  
The disturbance is expected to move westward and cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday with little development.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development while the system moves across the central and western
Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a
tropical depression could form during that time.  This system could
cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the
Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake