中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad and weak area of low pressure just offshore of the middle
Texas coast continues to produce some disorganized shower activity
along portions of the coast of Texas and over the adjacent waters of
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This system is expected to move
inland early Tuesday, and development is not expected.  Regardless,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of the
Texas coast during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty
winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and over the adjacent waters.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development when the
system reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico late this week and over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form during that time.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.  This system could produce areas of heavy
rain and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in a
day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  
This system is expected to move westward, and a tropical depression
could form when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  This system could produce
locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward.  By
the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  As this
system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches
the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late
this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward
or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by
the end of the week. This system could produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward.  By
the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Bann/Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  Some
development is possible late this week when the wave slows down
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development by the end of the week.  This system
could produce locally heavy rains across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands overnight and on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Berg

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  Some
development is possible late this week when the wave slows down
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.  This system could produce locally heavy rains
across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica, and across portions of the central
Caribbean Sea.  Some development is possible late this week when the
wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next
week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.  This system could produce locally heavy rains
across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

理可的呆萌呆毛

MDR繼續受到撒哈拉沙漠帶來的乾空氣和沙子影響，9月活躍度恐大幅度遜于年初預期

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics over the next few days as it moves north-
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  Some development is possible
early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be
slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable for additional development by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics over the next few days while it moves north-
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the west-central Caribbean Sea.  Some development is
possible in a few days when the system moves over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be
slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable for additional development by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart