中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

110
ACPN50 PHFO 080057
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sat Sep 7 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located over 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some subsequent development of this system as it moves slowly
northward over the next several days.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kino

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 080516
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sat Sep 7 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located over 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some subsequent development of this system as it moves slowly
northward over the next several days.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Vaughan

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data indicate a broad area of low pressure is
located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico while
interacting with a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to
drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along
the western Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic are showing gradual
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally westward at about
10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to move very little
during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of the week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of this week while it moves generally northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of the week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of this week while it moves generally northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sun Sep 8 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located around 1000 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development
of this system as it moves slowly northwestward during the next
couple days.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 10 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

872
ABNT20 KNHC 090542
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of the week, the system should begin move
westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In a couple of days, this
trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave.
Thereafter, Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 091123
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Mon Sep 9 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located around 1000 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions will remain unfavorable for development of
this system as it moves slowly northwestward during the next
couple days, and Tropical cyclone formation is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic.  By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western
Africa.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake