中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or
two, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter part of the week while it moves
generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is developing a couple hundred miles
to the south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

519
ABPZ20 KNHC 102302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula.  Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred
miles off the coast of Louisiana.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week as the system
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula.  Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located just south of Louisiana, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Seven located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an
area of stronger upper-level winds on Friday, likely ending its
chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing  
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development
over the next couple of days before environmental conditions
become even less conducive by this weekend while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or
tropical development is possible during the early part of next week
while the system drifts to the north or northwest.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.


$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake

ygsj24

715
ABNT20 KNHC 131737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Gordon, located over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing
advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over
northeastern Arkansas.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves generally
northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Northern Leeward Islands (AL94):
An area of low pressure near the Northern Leeward Islands is
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor
development of this system and development is no longer expected
while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over Arkansas.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this
weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form early next week while the system moves
generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

553
ABNT20 KNHC 141119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend
along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form
early next week while the system moves generally northwestward
toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next
day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney