中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during the
next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline.  The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days, while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast.  Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172320
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

pocketbox

2. Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon.  This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days.  Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

---

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
This system is forecast to interact with another area of low
pressure to its west while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. While environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development by the
end of this week, a tropical depression or storm could still re-form
in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the
central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
part of next week while it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

---

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms have been displaced farther away from the
center of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon) located
over a thousand miles southwest of the Azores due to strong
upper-level winds.  Significant development of this system is
not expected while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds are keeping showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.  Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 675 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 210008
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Sep 20 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately within 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure may form well south or southeast of the Big
Island next week. Some slow development of this system is possible
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kino