中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210510
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.  Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual subsequent development of this
system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over one thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.  Significant development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions do not appear
conducive for significant development of this system during the next
couple of days while it drifts northwestward and then northward at
about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual development of this system is
possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Kirogi

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 211731
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sat Sep 21 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A broad area of low pressure located around  1200 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week
as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

---

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
while it meanders offshore through early next week, then moves
slowly eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico
during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

---

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers displaced well
to the east of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon)
located over one thousand miles southwest of the Azores.  
Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly
northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center.  However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of
next week.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located far southeast
of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, while conditions aloft have produced increased
outflow. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph. By midweek, conditions will become gradually less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Bohlin

ygsj24

补发

087
ABNT20 KNHC 212330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center.  However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of
Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1050 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure located far southeast of Hawaii continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while conditions
aloft continue to produce good outflow. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
By midweek, conditions will become gradually less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...70 percent.



Forecaster Bohlin

pocketbox

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next day
or two while the system drifts northeastward or northward toward the
coast of southern Mexico.  Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight.  Regardless of development, this
system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week while the
system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

---

956
ABNT20 KNHC 221754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Development of this system is not expected due to dry air
and increasing upper-level winds during the next couple of days
while the low moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa.  
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and  central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly