中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern
Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorm activity has diminished somewhat with a
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of southwestern Mexico.  Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for slow development of this system as it
moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through
the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

pocketbox

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
is expected.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just south of southern Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while
it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico
through the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231757
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane John, located just south of southern Mexico.

East-Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable
for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

2. Approximately 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii:
Numerous showers and enhanced thunderstorms are in association with
an area of broad low pressure located far southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions may become marginally conducive
for development as this low moves into a more favorable area of
development to its northwest over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become more concentrated
since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

337
ABNT20 KNHC 241153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

fy6

夏威夷西南 10%/10%

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Storm John, dissipated inland over southern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along
the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system and a tropical
depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on
if it stays over water.  Interests in southern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, this system
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this week.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi