中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 241759
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located far southeast of
Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is not
expected as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Approximately 950 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii:
A broad area of low pressure located far southwest of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not conducive for further
development as this system moves northwestward over the next few
days.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kino

pocketbox

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several
hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-wind
data indicated the system was producing winds up to storm-force, and
environmental conditions could support some subtropical or tropical
development over the next several days as the system moves generally
eastward, remaining over the open waters of central Subtropical
Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Recent satellite imagery
suggests the system does not yet have a well-defined surface
circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form later today or tomorrow while the disturbance
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is then forecast to slow down and turn northward late Friday
and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean by the
middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system moves
generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaac are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaac are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270542
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Helene, located inland over southern Georgia and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to remain well organized. Environmental
conditions are currently conducive for further development and a
tropical depression or storm could form at any time today while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. The system is then forecast to slow down and turn
north-northwestward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Helene, located inland over northeast Georgia and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm
could form today while the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development
thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Rosado

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just inland over southwestern Mexico.

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system could form early next week off the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Helene, located inland over the southern Appalachians,
on Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic
Ocean, and on recently-formed Tropical Storm Joyce, located over
the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development
thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Rosado

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Tropical Atlantic
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
Valley.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a
tropical wave, is producing limited shower activity near and to the
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form next week while moving toward the west and
then northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, likely entering the Gulf of Mexico by the
end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

811
ABPZ20 KNHC 280513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Some slow development is possible thereafter
while the system drifts generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Tropical Atlantic
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
Valley.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a
tropical wave, is producing limited shower activity near and to the
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form next week while moving toward the west and
then northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the early part of next week.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the
system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as the system enters the Gulf
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Beven