‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

觀雲趣 · 发表于 2024-11-16 04:07

本帖最后由觀雲趣于 2024-11-16 10:29 编辑

原SAR掃描衝帖

已更改成BD 雲圖動圖

ygsj24 · 发表于 2024-11-16 04:10

WTIO30 FMEE 151904
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 74.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/16 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/18 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/19 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2024/11/20 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CDO HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY, WITH CLEARER DELINEATION AND COOLED SUMMITS. THE ASCAT
SWATH AT 1627Z GIVES A GOOD VIEW OF THE CENTER, BUT DOES NOT YET SHOW
ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE WIND, PROBABLY DUE TO THE PREVIOUS
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN THESE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONS, BHEKI MAINTAINS A
MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 55KT USING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT
4.0, IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN IS DRIVING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI TO FOLLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY
PATH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR IS DRIVING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS HINDER IT FROM MOVING. DESPITE THIS, THE
RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING BHEKI TO CONTINUE
ON ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY COURSE, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER SPEED. AT THE END OF
THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THIS RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN
AGAIN, BLOCKING BHEKI'S SOUTH-WESTERLY MOTION. AS IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, BHEKI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LOWER-LAYER FLOWS. THE
HIGH-PRESSURE CELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND ITS EASTERLY
FLOW WOULD THEN FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE DUE WEST, WITH FASTER
MOVEMENT ON TUESDAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS BROADLY ACCEPTED, BUT THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A RELATIVELY WIDE DISPERSION AMONG THE MAIN MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS
IN LINE WITH THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE MODELS, WITH A SLIGHT MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF'S DETERMINISTIC
REPRESENTATION, WHICH MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS.

TIN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI COULD BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING HOURS. THUS, WITH LOW SHEAR,
HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM WATERS FAVORING OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI SHOULD
INTENSIFY TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BY SUNDAY. . DURING THIS
INTENSIFICATION PHASE, SHORT PAUSES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE A WESTERLY
SHEAR STRESS SETS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, BHEKI WILL APPROACH
THE MASCAREIGNES WEAKENED.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT POSSIBLE WIND- AND RAIN-RELATED
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
RODRIGUES WITHIN 5 DAYS, RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
ITS EVOLUTION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- FROM SUNDAY EVENING, SEA CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. AVERAGE WAVES OF AROUND 4M, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF UP TO
8M ARE POSSIBLE.=

ygsj24 · 发表于 2024-11-16 04:35

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-11-16 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 74.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.0S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.9S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.6S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.1S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.6S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 74.0E.
15NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.8S 74.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 360 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN 151310Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND DEMS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 KTS (CIMSS AIDT) TO 77 KTS (KNES DVORAK).
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY BUT CONVECTIVE
BANDING STRUCTURE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES POLEWARD INTO A ZONE OF LOWER NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 58 KTS AT 151629Z
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 151800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 151700Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 65 KTS AT 151800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, TIMING OF
PEAK INTENSITY, AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT
(SOONER) THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY CHANGE
CURVE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE TIMING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27C) WILL INDUCE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, TURNING THE
SYSTEM TOWARD A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S WILL CONTEND WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26C) DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, RESULTING IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. TRACK FORECASTS
ARE TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL TRACKER SPREAD
INCREASES, WITH THE UKMET-BASED MODELS SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST, NCEP MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF-BASED MODELS INDICATING A
TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE CONSENSUS TRACK, WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE EVENLY SPREAD DISTRIBUTION, AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSENSUS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY TREND, BUT
HAFS DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION UP
TO OR EXCEEDING 100 KTS BY TAU 48, WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
SHORT WINDOW OF SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2024-11-16 08:29

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-11-16 09:30 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 160037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ITSELF INTO AN EYE
PATTERN. THE GCOM IMAGE FROM 2037Z SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND A
SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE PICTURES, WHICH SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING.
ANALYSIS OF THE DVORAK EYE PATTERN SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 4.5.
HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A MARKED TILT OF THE CENTER
ON THE VERTICAL. FOR THIS REASON, THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN IS STEERING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH IS FORCING BHEKI ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR HINDERS
THE MOTION OF BHEKI, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY SLOWING DOWN ITS COURSE.
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN BHEKI SHOULD START TO WEAKEN, IT
WILL BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, AND IN PARTICULAR BY THE MASCARENE
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH WILL IMPOSE A WESTERLY TRACK ON ITHIS SCENARIO IS
BROADLY ACCEPTED, BUT THERE IS NEVERTHELESS A RELATIVELY WIDE
DISPERSION AMONG THE MAIN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE AVERAGE OF ALL
THE MODELS, WITH A SLIGHT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF'S DETERMINISTIC REPRESENTATION, WHICH
MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.

TIN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI'S SLOWDOWN ALLOWS IT TO BENEFIT FROM
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THUS, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WARM WATERS FAVORING OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI SHOULD
INTENSIFY TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IN THE COMING HOURS.
DURING THIS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, SHORT PAUSES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE A
WESTERLY SHEAR STRESS SETS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, BHEKI WILL
APPROACH THE MASCAREIGNES WEAKENED.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT POSSIBLE WIND- AND RAIN-RELATED
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
RODRIGUES WITHIN 5 DAYS, RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
ITS EVOLUTION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- FROM SUNDAY EVENING, SEA CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. AVERAGE WAVES OF AROUND 4M TO 6M, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF
UP TO 12M ARE POSSIBLE.=

renzhetegong · 发表于 2024-11-16 10:30

无人在意的角落。。

TPXS10 PGTW 160039
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 15/2345Z
C. 13.41S
D. 73.59E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG
YIELDS A CF OF 4.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

LINDGREN

TXXS26 KNES 160055
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  15/2330Z
C.  13.2S
D.  73.7E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T4.5/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. THE MET AND
PT ARE 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...GATLING

冰凌蔷薇 · 发表于 2024-11-16 13:32

SAR 00Z 75

ygsj24 · 发表于 2024-11-16 14:22

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-11-16 15:30 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 160622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 73.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/18 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/20 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/21 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI'S CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE VISIBLE ON BOTH INFRARED AND
VISIBLE IMAGES. DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
SUGGESTS A T OF 4.5+. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER AVAILABLE IMAGES AND IN
LINE WITH OBJECTIVE CIMSS DATA, BHEKI IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN
IS GENERATING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI TO HEAD
SOUTHWEST. BHEKI SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN ON
MONDAY, DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. BHEKI WOULD
THEN CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THERE
IS A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS ON
THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MORNING, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS THERE IS A WIDE
DIVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S TURN AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK. IN FACT, WHILE
THE AMERICAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND MOST OF THE OTHER DETERMINIST
MODELS PROPOSE A DUE WEST TRACK LEAVING THE SISTER ISLANDS WELL AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM, THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL,
AS WELL AS MANY OF THE RUNS OF THE ASSEMBLY, PROPOSES A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK, PASSING THE CENTER OVER THE SISTER ISLANDS. THE
TRACK FORECASTED BY RSMC REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT ON A WESTERLY
SCENARIO, BUT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE AVERAGE OF THE MODELS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED, THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE SISTER ISLANDS HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITH LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS AND STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
BHEKI SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK ON SUNDAY. IT
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERLY
SHEAR STRESS AND THE PRESENCE OF COOLER WATERS COULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT POSSIBLE WIND- AND RAIN-RELATED
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
RODRIGUES WITHIN 5 DAYS, RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
ITS EVOLUTION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- A DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF RAIN OR WIND.
- A CYCLONIC SWELL OF 4 TO 6M IS EXPECTED TO REACH RODRIGUES FROM
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND :
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION
ISLAND.=

renzhetegong · 发表于 2024-11-16 14:40

02S BHEKI 241116 0600 14.0S 73.0E SHEM 75 965

TPXS10 PGTW 160606
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 16/0530Z
C. 13.91S
D. 73.00E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

EL-NAZLY

TXXS26 KNES 160603
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  16/0530Z
C.  13.9S
D.  73.1E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T4.5/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET AND PT
ARE 4.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...COVERDALE

ygsj24 · 发表于 2024-11-16 15:31

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-11-16 17:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 73.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 73.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.0S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.8S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 72.6E.
16NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
415 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 965 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 73.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BHEKI) WITH A DEVELOPING BUT STILL RAGGED
EYE-FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE PERIPHERY
OF THE NORTHERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN
FLANK, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ON THE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS, ILLUSTRATED BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW
EXPRESSED WITH CIRRIFORM STRIATIONS BURSTING AWAY FROM THE CENTER
STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST REMAINS
LESS THAN 15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) CONTINUE
BETWEEN 27 C TO 28 C. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE
OBSERVED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES ALIGNING AT T4.5, AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
RANGING BETWEEN 68 KTS AND 81 KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 160530Z
CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 160600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 80 KTS AT 160600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 76 KTS AT 152036Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 76 KTS AT 160600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR DIRECTLY TO THE EAST UNTIL
TAU 48, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES ASSISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTWARD PULL TOWARD LATITUDE
18S. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWEST, A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ORIENTED STR BEGINS TO BUILD JUST SOUTHWEST OF TC BHEKI. FOLLOWING
TAU 48, THE STR THAT BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS OUT
THE TRACK, FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL TAU 120. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC 02S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UNTIL TAU 24 DURING THE APPROACH TOWARD
THE STR AXIS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, SSTS BEGIN TO DROP TO LESS THAN 26 C,
STARTING THE INITIAL WEAKENING PHASE. AS TC BHEKI CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, VWS INCREASES TO ABOVE 20 KTS, WEAKENING
THE SYSTEM TO 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AT TAU 48, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO
THE CORE AND VWS ABOVE 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ERODE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH FORECASTED INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES NON-CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SUSTAINMENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TC 02S, WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM BY TAU 72, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 244
NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALIGN CLOSELY WITH
THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEAN AND PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH A SOUTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BECOMING GENERALLY WESTWARD
THEREAFTER. OF NOTE, ALTHOUGH THE UKMET ENSEMBLE INDICATES A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 72, AND ECMWF AND NAVGEM TRACK
TC 02S FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWEST, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE
TO THE JTWC CONSENSUS, GFS, AND THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE INITIAL 72 HOURS, AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, ALL INTENSITY
MEMBERS INDICATE A RELATIVELY SHORT INTENSIFICATION WINDOW IN THE
INITIAL 24 HOURS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 0-72 INTENSITY
FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 72, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTIES AS THE STR
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWEST OF TC 02S BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2024-11-16 16:31

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：聂高臻  签发：张玲  2024 年 11 月 16 日 10 时
“贝基”减弱为强热带风暴级

时    间：16日08时（北京时）

海    域：南印度洋

命    名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬13.4度、东经73.6度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：980百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1870公里的洋面上

变化过程：“贝基”由热带气旋级减弱为强热带风暴级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月16日08时00分）

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‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

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