马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 090702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 63.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN,
FORMING A CURVED BAND WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS TO THREE-QUARTERS AROUND
THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. F17 AND F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0114Z AND 0138Z
CONFIRM THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MORE PRECISE OBJECTIVE DATA, INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF
DVORAK ANALYSIS, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT.

DIKELEDI'S CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST, AND ITS
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST,
GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SATURDAY EVENING LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK GROWS FROM 60H ONWARDS.
THE RSMC FORECAST SUGGESTS AN EXIT ON SUNDAY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, CURVING SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RECEDES OVER THE
BASIN. AT THESE TIMES, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR,
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS THURSDAY AND INTO TOMORROW FRIDAY, WITH DECREASING WIND SHEAR
ALLOWING BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS VERY GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE
CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY UNTIL LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSIFICATION
IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT A NEW RISE OF WIND SHEAR ON
SATURDAY, COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, COULD
MORE OR LESS LEVEL THE STORM'S INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER
MADAGASCAR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE
EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE GREATER OR LESSER LAND INTERACTION. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (VERY WARM WATERS, FURTHER
DECREASE IN SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE), BUT IN THE CASE OF A
LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WITH A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE TRACK, THE PROBABILITY OF GALES IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LOW.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- WITH A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE TRACK, THE PROBABILITY OF GALES IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LOW.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM 12UTC ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING
AND NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (LOCATED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METRES NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 150-200 MM IN 24
HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND ON EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：许映龙  2025 年 01 月 09 日 18 时
南印度洋热带风暴“迪克莱迪”生成

时       间：9日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬14.6度、东经63.8度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：999百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东北方向约910公里的洋面上

变化过程：“迪克莱迪”今天上午08时生成并加强到8级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月09日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 091240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE IN THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHEREAS IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING ON ITS
SOUTHERN SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRY REFLECTS THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY MID-SHEAR. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AREA AND HAS PARTLY BEEN
ESTIMATED THANKS TO MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ESPECIALLY THE 10Z AMSR2. IN
THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT STATIONARY AT 40 KT.

DIKELEDI'S CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST BY
MOST MODELS, AND IT IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. THIS FAST-MOVING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWING A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TRACK GROWS FROM 60H ONWARDS, WITH STRONG DISPERSION IN THE NWP
OUTPUT. THE FAVORED SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OUT
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUNDAY, CURVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN
SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR ALLOWING BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS VERY
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT A NEW RISE OF WIND
SHEAR ON SATURDAY, COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT,
COULD MORE OR LESS LEVEL THE STORM'S INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS OVER MADAGASCAR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK OVER WARM
WATERS IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY
COAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO GREATER OR LESSER LAND INTERACTION. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (VERY WARM WATERS, FURTHER DECREASING
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE), BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER
TRANSIT OVER LAND OR NEAR LAND, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METRES NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 150-200 MM IN 24
HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND ON EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=

Samuelle

94S INVEST 250109 1200 13.6S 61.6E SHEM 35 998

933954

JTWC曾将其升格为07S，不过现在已经撤销编号，并降格为94S。

1.   DIKELEDI, SH, S, , , , , 07, 2025, TS, S, 2024123000, 9999999999, , , , , 1, WARNING, 1, SH072025

复制代码

1.     INVEST, SH, S, , , , , 94, 2025, TS, S, 2024123000, 9999999999, , , , , 1, METWATCH, 1, SH942025

复制代码

理可的呆萌呆毛

說實話，老J撤回了一個編號的操作實在看不懂想做什麼。。。

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 091754

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (DIKELEDI)

B. 09/1730Z

C. 13.60S

D. 59.87E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET/PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DESSINO

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 091825
TCSSIO

A.  06S (DIKELEDI)

B.  09/1730Z

C.  14.3S

D.  59.9E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T3.0/3.0

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...7.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET IS
A 2.5 DUE TO A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT
AGREES WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...NGUYEN

=

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 091942
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 60.5 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

120H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE, WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. SINCE 17UTC, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS COOLED
OVERALL, BECOMING MORE CURVED, INDICATING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
JUDGE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT ANALYSIS OF
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY NEVERTHELESS ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE IT
AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVED CLOUD STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT,
DIKELEDI'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45KT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR OUR
ANALYSIS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
WEST-NORTH-WEST AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A LATE-DAY OR EVENING LANDING ON MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS AMONG SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SYSTEMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES FROM 60H
ONWARDS, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS. THE
MAJORITY SCENARIO SUGGESTS AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE TRACK CURVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE
TO A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS
GUIDANCE PROPOSING A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE PRESENT FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THIS THURSDAY EVENING AND UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD
MOVEMENT. DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THESE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS FORECAST
FROM FRIDAY UNTIL LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED, BUT WILL POTENTIALLY
DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL PHYSICS (EYE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE) OR ON AN INCREASE IN ALTITUDE STRESS COMBINED WITH
A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES LAND. IN WHICH
CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY THAN
EXPECTED. DIKELEDI SHOULD PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING THE NIGHT OF
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAND, BUT
SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS IN A
FAVOURABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE
SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO THE GREATER OR LESSER INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRAJECTORY FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT ON OR NEAR LAND,
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING BY TOMORROW FRIDAY MORNING.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).=