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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 21:15 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 021226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2025/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 55.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 0
24H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 75
36H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 85
48H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
120H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WE HAVE GONE FROM A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A
TOTALLY DECONVECTED AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, QUITE FAR FROM THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS, RESULTING IN A RATHER DYING SYSTEM. THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM ENDED UP CIRCULATING VERY RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT MASCARENES, JOINING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD MASS EXPANDED
CONSIDERABLY, WITH PARTICULARLY COLD TOPS AND VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN A DETERIORATION OVER REUNION IN TERMS OF
THUNDERY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS. FOLLOWING THIS REMARKABLE
EVOLUTION, THE DVORAK FMEE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS TO A CI OF
2.5-, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES, BUT RATHER
WITHIN THE NORM OF CURRENT OBJECTIVE DATA (AIDT / ADT IN PARTICULAR).
THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED AGAIN TO 30KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM MOMENTARILY CAUSED IT TO DIP TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. FROM NOW ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH COULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, INDUCING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK PREDICTION. THE MODELS
REMAIN GLOBALLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH-WEST IN ANALYSIS, ACCELERATING
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN IN REALITY. HOWEVER, TAKING THIS BIAS
INTO ACCOUNT, A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS STILL ENVISAGED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY WHEN THE
VORTEX RE-EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DISPLAYING A CDO PATTERN, THANKS TO A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VWS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, THE
LATTER IS STILL PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BUT IS NOT HINDERING THE
SYSTEM'S POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE
NAMING STAGE DURING OVERNIGHT THIS IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN IN THE
PRESENT FORECAST, AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
MORE NOTICEABLE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM
COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH THE TEMPORARY EASING
OF THE ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACCELERATION IN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE VORTEX. A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM
LIKELY UNTIL THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE THE LANDFALL
OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN EXPERIENCE A NEW
PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF ITS
INTERNAL STRUCTURE (DURING ITS 24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR) AND
ITS INTENSITY ON LANDING.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :
MADAGASCAR (PROBABLE LANDING IN THE MORNING OF TUESDAY OVER THE NORTH
OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE)
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE
- HEAVY RAINS FROM MONDAY EVENING ON POINTE DE MASOALA AND TOAMASINA
COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 MM BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THESE HEAVY RAINS GRADUALLY MOVED INLAND FROM THE
TOAMASINA / MAHAJANGA PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY, STAYING BELOW 100 MM
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.=
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