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马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

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发表于 2025-2-1 11:39 | 显示全部楼层
ygsj24 发表于 2025-2-1 08:15
WTIO30 FMEE 010033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SO ...

MFR很不看好被命名,看来是要拖到登陆前

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发表于 2025-2-1 14:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-1 15:50 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 010638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 61.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 175 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95

48H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 85

72H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

LAST NIGHT'S 00UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 2.5/2.5
AFTERHAND, IN CONNECTION WITH THE TEMPORARY STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST,
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO.
IT IS LIKELY THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WERE TEMPORARILY PRESENT UNDER
THIS CONVECTION, NOTABLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, THEN PROPAGATING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AS THE 0117Z RCM-1 SAR PASS SEEMS TO
INDICATE. HOWEVER, THIS EVOLUTION WAS VERY SHORT-LIVED AND RATHER
RELATED TO CONVECTION'S DIURNAL CYCLE. THIS MORNING, CONVECTION HAS
EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED ONCE AGAIN, REVEALING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX UNDER THE EFFECT OF A PERSISTENT 20/25 KT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
THE 06UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS THUS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO 2.0. THE 0427Z
ASCAT-B PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO 32KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
THUS CONFIRMING THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AT
06UTC.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STEER IT WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF DISPERSION BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. A LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR IN TOAMASINA PROVINCE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. DISPERSION
INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY REGARDING THE EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SYSTEM NAO7 SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IT COULD
ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING POLAR
CONVERGENCE AND LOWER WIND SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM
POSSIBLE UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, NWP OUTPUT IS EXTREMELY HIGHLY
DISPERSED (FROM A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UP TO A MATURE TROPICAL
CYCLONE), HENCE A VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN RESUME INTENSIFICATION ONCE BACK OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS SATURDAY : 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS. BETTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY.

MADAGASCAR :
- LANDFALL TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN (ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, LOCALLY UP TO 100-200 MM IN 24H OVER
TOAMASINA AND ANTSIRANANA PROVINCES.=

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发表于 2025-2-1 17:57 | 显示全部楼层
MFR很不看好被命名,看来是要拖到登陆前

根据西南印度洋命名表,下一个名字应该是Fada对吧
Every cloud has a silver lining.

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发表于 2025-2-1 20:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-1 21:05 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 011233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 60.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 155

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130

36H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

48H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
VORTEX DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE CENTER HAS
MADE A SOUTH-WEST THEN WEST-SOUTH-WEST TURN. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
RESUMED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, FORMING A MARKED BAND OF
RAINSTORMS NOW AFFECTING SAINT-BRANDON. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA,
THE INTENSITY IS KEPT STATIONARY AT 30 KT. NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ON THE BASIS OF THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND SOME NWP GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STEER IT WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FROM
MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN AIFS, THE EPS MEAN AND GFS. DISPERSION INCREASES
EVEN MORE SHARPLY REGARDING THE EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SYSTEM NAO7 SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
IT COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING POLAR
CONVERGENCE AND LOWER WIND SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM
POSSIBLE UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OR MAYBE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, NWP OUTPUT IS
EXTREMELY HIGHLY DISPERSED (FROM A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UP TO A
MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE), HENCE A VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN RSMC
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN RESUME INTENSIFICATION ONCE
BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS SATURDAY : 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS. BETTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY.

MADAGASCAR :
- LANDFALL TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN (ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, LOCALLY UP TO 100-200 MM IN 24H OVER
TOAMASINA AND ANTSIRANANA PROVINCES.=

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敬,不完美的......明天

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发表于 2025-2-1 22:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-2-1 23:20 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 60.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 60.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.2S 58.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.4S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 18.4S 54.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.0S 52.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 16.8S 49.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.9S 45.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.1S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 60.2E.
01FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 011500
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING
  4. NR 009//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.6S 60.8E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 249 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
  16. CYCLONE 11S WITH A COMPACT, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
  17. CENTER. HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT ON THE
  18. SYSTEM, CAUSING THE LLCC TO BE COMPLETELY EXPOSED. RECENTLY,
  19. VIGOROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE
  20. NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 11S IS
  21. IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
  22. HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE PRESENCE OF DRY
  23. AIR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
  24. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
  25. IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
  26. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
  27. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
  29. DATA.

  30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  31. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.

  32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  33.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  34.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
  35.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  36.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  37.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 011200Z
  38.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 011200Z
  39.    CIMSS DPRINT: 33 KTS AT 011200Z
  40.    CIMSS DMINT: 33 KTS AT 011000Z

  41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
  42.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
  43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  44.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
  45.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR

  46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  47.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  52. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  53. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD,
  54. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
  55. 36, A SECONDARY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE
  56. SYSTEM, DRIVING IT NORTHWESTWARD. 11S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
  57. ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AROUND TAU 72. THE VORTEX
  58. WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR AND THEN
  59. ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY,
  60. 11S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS
  61. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. AFTER TAU 24,
  62. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
  63. ABATE, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PHASE AS THE SYSTEM
  64. APPROACHES MADAGASCAR. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION
  65. WILL ERODE THE VORTEX AND CAUSE WEAKENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS
  66. THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GREATLY IMPROVE. SEA
  67. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
  68. LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW 11S TO REINTENSIFY.

  69. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
  70. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 11S THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 105 NM
  71. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THAT TIME. THIS IS WITHOUT THE PRIMARY
  72. OUTLIER, GALWEM, WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN
  73. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS DIVERGE TO A 290 NM
  74. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS BEING THAT GFS HAS A
  75. SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72, KEEPING THE VORTEX OVER
  76. LAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE MAIN GROUPING
  77. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  78. THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
  79. MODELS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24, WEAKENING OVER
  80. LAND, AND REINTENSIFICAION WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AS A
  81. RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH
  82. OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

  83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  84.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  85.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  86.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  87.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  88. NNNN
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发表于 2025-2-2 04:35 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 011832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 59.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 155

24H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 165

36H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 120

48H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 130

60H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 130

72H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185

120H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 85 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD VORTEX WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED AND SHIFTED 50 NM WEST OF
THE CENTER. THE CENTER, CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON A DAY-MICROPHYSICS-TYP
E SATELLITE IMAGE, CONTINUES ITS WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK.
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY RISEN AGAIN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE,
FORMING A MARKED RAINSTORM BAND THAT HAS AFFECTED SAINT-BRANDON. THE
ASCAT SWATH AT 1658Z ALLOWS WIND EXTENSIONS TO BE UPDATED. IT
CONTAINS AN ISOLATED MEASUREMENT OF 35KT UNDER CONVECTION AND A FEW
MEASUREMENTS CLOSE TO 28KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES AN
INTENSITY OF 30KT, IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE OTHER
CENTERS. THIS IS THE FINAL VALUE RETAINED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STEER IT WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FROM
MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE RSMC TRAJECTORY IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS BUT WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT FOR
GFS. WITH SUCH A SCENARIO, THE CIRCULATING FLOWS FROM THE FIRST
MENTIONED RIDGE WILL MAKE THE SYSTEM LAND EARLIER ON MADAGASCAR THAN
WITH IFS.DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY REGARDING THE EXIT
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SYSTEM NAO7 SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
IT COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH A
GFS-TYPE SCENARIO, WITH INCREASING POLAR CONVERGENCE AND LOWER WIND
SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM POSSIBLE UP TO MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM OR MAYBE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, NWP OUTPUT IS EXTREMELY HIGHLY DISPERSED
(FROM A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UP TO A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE),
HENCE A VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
COULD THEN RESUME INTENSIFICATION ONCE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS SATURDAY : 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS. BETTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY.

MADAGASCAR :
- LANDFALL TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN (ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, LOCALLY UP TO 100-200 MM IN 24H OVER
TOAMASINA AND ANTSIRANANA PROVINCES.
- HEAVY SEA ON THE EAST COAST WITH WAVES OF 2.5/3M AND POSSIBLY UP TO
4M.=

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发表于 2025-2-2 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 09:20 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 020041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 58.9 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 140

24H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 110

36H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 120

48H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 120

60H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 130

72H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 185

120H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD VORTEX WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED AND SHIFTED OVER 100 MN
WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER, CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON THE GPM GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2308Z, TOOK A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES AN INTENSITY OF 25KT, WHEREAS
THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE OTHER CENTERS AND THE 1416Z SAR ARE OF
THE ORDER OF 30KT. IN FINAL, THE VALUE OF 30KT WAS RETAINED, ENABLING
THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO RE-ESTABLISH THE SYSTEM'S COURSE TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL
OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST COULD PUSH THE
SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RSMC TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS BUT WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS FOR
AROME, WHICH IS BETTER SUITED TO ANALYSIS. IN THE GFS SCENARIO, THE
CIRCULATING FLOWS FROM THE FIRST MENTIONED RIDGE WILL MAKE THE SYSTEM
LAND EARLIER ON MADAGASCAR THAN WITH IFS.DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN
MORE SHARPLY REGARDING THE EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION IS THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SYSTEM NAO7 SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
IT COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH A
GFS-TYPE SCENARIO, WITH INCREASING POLAR CONVERGENCE AND LOWER WIND
SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM POSSIBLE UP TO MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM OR MAYBE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, NWP OUTPUT IS EXTREMELY HIGHLY DISPERSED
(FROM A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UP TO A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE),
HENCE A VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
COULD THEN RESUME INTENSIFICATION ONCE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

MADAGASCAR :
- LANDFALL TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN (ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTH OF ANTSIRANANA).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY EVENING, EXTENDING INTO
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA BUT POSSIBLY REACHING
THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA.
- HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY 100-200 MM
IN 24H, FIRST OVER THE PROVINCES OF TOAMASINA AND ANTSIRANANA, THEN
OVER THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA.
- HEAVY SEAS WITH WAVES OF 2.5/3M AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4M, MAINLY ON
THE COASTS OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE.=

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发表于 2025-2-2 10:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 10:50 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 010   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 58.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 58.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.9S 56.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 19.0S 54.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.7S 52.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 17.6S 47.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 18.3S 44.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 18.3S 42.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 58.3E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 020300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
  4. 010//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.5S 58.8E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 128 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  16. CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
  17. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND STRADDLING A
  18. ZONE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
  19. IS SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD, EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
  20. (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
  21. ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
  22. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AUTOMATED CIMSS ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
  23. SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
  24. ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
  25. MODERATE VWS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS.

  26. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

  27. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

  28. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  29.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  30.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  31.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  32.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 012330Z
  33.    CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 012100Z

  34. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
  35.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  36.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  37.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

  38. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  39.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  40.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  41.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  42. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  43. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  44. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  45. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
  46. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY
  47. STR BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE
  48. CYCLONE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
  49. NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR JUST AROUND TAU 60. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
  50. MORE FAVORABLE WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND VWS AND
  51. PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS AT TAUS 36-48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
  52. RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY TAU 96.
  53. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
  54. RAPIDLY REGAINING INTENSITY TO 50KTS BY TAU 120.  

  55. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
  56. WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 155NM AT TAU 72 AND 188NM AT TAU
  57. 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES DUE
  58. TO LAND INTERACTION THAT CAN ALSO IMPACT THE TRACK, THERE IS ONLY
  59. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

  60. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  61.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  62.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  63.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  64.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  65. NNNN
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发表于 2025-2-2 14:13 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 15:40 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 020725
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 57.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100

24H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150

60H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=1.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPOSED AND FULLY
DECONVECTED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD VORTEX WITH DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 90
MN NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS VORTEX CAN BE OBSERVED CLEARLY USING
THE ANIMATION OF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES IN THE HRV CHANNEL,
GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM AT
ANALYSIS TIME. GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SHEARED CLOUD
CONFIGURATION, A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ENABLES THE INTENSITY TO
BE TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STAGE, WITH
ESTIMATED MEAN WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 25KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH SUBJECTIVE (KNES AND PGTW) AND OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ANALYSES
(AIDT / ADT / DPRINT), AS WELL AS THE ASCAT-C PASS OF 0502Z, ARRIVING
AFTER THE ANALYSIS TIME, SHOWING STRONG BREEZE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DIP TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COULD FAVOUR A NORTH-WESTERLY RISE IN
THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT,
INDUCING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST. THE
MODELS REMAIN GLOBALLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH-WEST IN ANALYSIS,
ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN IN REALITY. HOWEVER,
TAKING THIS BIAS INTO ACCOUNT, A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS STILL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY
WHEN THE VORTEX RE-EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A HIGHLY SHEARED PATTERN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR, FEEDING DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE
LLC. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY HOLDING BACK THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. SYSTEM NAO7 SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY AT THE MARGIN BY
SUNDAY, BUT IT IS MAINLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
WITH THE TEMPORARY EASING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ACCELERATION IN VORTEX MOVEMENT. A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION
WOULD THEN SEEM POSSIBLE UP TO THE MODERATE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA
(MADAGASCAR). HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS IS EXTREMELY
HIGH, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD SUBSEQUENTLY EXPERIENCE A NEW PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BUT THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE AND MATURITY, FOLLOWING ITS
24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

MADAGASCAR :
- LANDFALL TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN (ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTH OF ANTSIRANANA).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY EVENING, EXTENDING INTO
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA BUT POSSIBLY REACHING
THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA.
- HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY 100-200 MM
IN 24H, FIRST OVER THE PROVINCES OF TOAMASINA AND ANTSIRANANA, THEN
OVER THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA.
- HEAVY SEAS WITH WAVES OF 2.5/3M AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4M, MAINLY ON
THE COASTS OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE.=

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发表于 2025-2-2 20:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 21:15 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 021226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 55.8 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 85

48H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WE HAVE GONE FROM A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A
TOTALLY DECONVECTED AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, QUITE FAR FROM THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS, RESULTING IN A RATHER DYING SYSTEM. THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM ENDED UP CIRCULATING VERY RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT MASCARENES, JOINING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD MASS EXPANDED
CONSIDERABLY, WITH PARTICULARLY COLD TOPS AND VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN A DETERIORATION OVER REUNION IN TERMS OF
THUNDERY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS. FOLLOWING THIS REMARKABLE
EVOLUTION, THE DVORAK FMEE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS TO A CI OF
2.5-, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES, BUT RATHER
WITHIN THE NORM OF CURRENT OBJECTIVE DATA (AIDT / ADT IN PARTICULAR).
THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED AGAIN TO 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM MOMENTARILY CAUSED IT TO DIP TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. FROM NOW ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH COULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, INDUCING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK PREDICTION. THE MODELS
REMAIN GLOBALLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH-WEST IN ANALYSIS, ACCELERATING
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN IN REALITY. HOWEVER, TAKING THIS BIAS
INTO ACCOUNT, A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS STILL ENVISAGED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY WHEN THE
VORTEX RE-EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DISPLAYING A CDO PATTERN, THANKS TO A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VWS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, THE
LATTER IS STILL PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BUT IS NOT HINDERING THE
SYSTEM'S POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE
NAMING STAGE DURING OVERNIGHT THIS IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN IN THE
PRESENT FORECAST, AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
MORE NOTICEABLE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM
COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH THE TEMPORARY EASING
OF THE ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACCELERATION IN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE VORTEX. A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN SEEM
LIKELY UNTIL THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE THE LANDFALL
OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN EXPERIENCE A NEW
PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF ITS
INTERNAL STRUCTURE (DURING ITS 24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR) AND
ITS INTENSITY ON LANDING.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :
MADAGASCAR (PROBABLE LANDING IN THE MORNING OF TUESDAY OVER THE NORTH
OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE)
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE
- HEAVY RAINS FROM MONDAY EVENING ON POINTE DE MASOALA AND TOAMASINA
COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 MM BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THESE HEAVY RAINS GRADUALLY MOVED INLAND FROM THE
TOAMASINA / MAHAJANGA PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY, STAYING BELOW 100 MM
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.=

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