科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第8号“文斯”(15U/13S.Vince) - 西南移动，微波风眼构建 - BoM:80KT MFR:90KT JTWC:110KT

karding

Tropical Cyclone VINCE :
Information at 0930UTC :
Estimated position: 17.8S / 89.3E
Movement : WSW, 12 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 75 kt
Estimated central pressure : 970 hPa

展望图上已不再标注Vince

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 041233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 89.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

24H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED, WITH
THE EYE BECOMING LESS AND LESS VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THIS
EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE ONSET OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE LAST NIGHT, IN A NORTH-EASTERLY SHEARED AND DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1038Z
SSMIS AND 0926Z GMI) STILL SHOW THE PRESENCE OF THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE,
BUT WITH AN INNER EYEWALL CLEARLY OPEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, DPRINT, DMINT) FROM CIMSS AND
PARTIAL DATA FROM THE AMSR2 PASS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 65 AND
75KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 70KT.

REGARDING ITS TRACK, VINCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT REMAINS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE STEERING FLOW AND
SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARDS. ALL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. SPREADING REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW.

REGARDING ITS ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A FAIR OCEANIC
POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK (SST CLOSE TO 27C), BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT
AT LONGER RANGE. THE CURRENT SHEAR THIS TUESDAY SHOULD EASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD STRENGTHEN.
VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE EXPERIENCE A NEW STRENGTHENING PHASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, SHOULD LIMIT VINCE'S
INTENSITY BEYOND THIS POINT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

LsfyHarold

FY-4B

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 041842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 88.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE, WITH AN EYE INVADED BY CLOUDS. THIS CONTINUED
DEGRADATION IS PROBABLY THE CONSEQUENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE FOR
THE EYE WALL. INDEED, ANALYSIS OF WIND PROFILES USING RCM2 DATA FROM
FEBRUARY 03 AT 2333UTC AND TODAY AT 1224UTC SHOWS A WEAKENING AND
WIDENING OF THE STRUCTURE. DVORAK ANALYSES OVER SHORT PERIODS AND ADT
DATA SHOW WEAKENING. AT 18UTC, A T OF 4.5- CAN BE DEFINED, LEAVING A
CI OF 4.5, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 70KT, WHICH IS
VALIDATED BY THE 78KT 10-MINUTE AVERAGE OF THE SAR AT 1224UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, WITH WINDS OF AROUND
70KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS SET TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE MAIN
FLOW AND TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALL GUIDELINES ARE IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE
BY SUNDAY ON THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, REVEALING A FEW
MORE CROSS-TRACK ERRORS.

IN TERMS OF THE ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T SLOW DOWN
TOO MUCH BY SUNDAY AS IT HEADS SOUTHWEST. AS FOR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD
STRENGTHEN. VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN REACH THE
STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE DEEP
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LIMIT VINCE'S INTENSITY AND THUS CONTRIBUTE TO ITS SLOW BUT
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING. FROM FRIDAY, MORE MARKED FLUCTUATIONS LINKED
TO A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 88.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 88.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 18.7S 85.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 19.2S 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 19.7S 82.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.2S 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.0S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.0S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.7S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 87.5E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1741
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
041800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 042100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)        
   
4. WARNING NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 88.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1741 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. SYSTEM, WITH A RAGGED, INCONSISTENT EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
    
19. POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
    
20. THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW, RANGING FROM 61-
    
21. 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
    
22. ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (26-
    
23. 27C). HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CLEARLY IMPINGING ON
    
24. THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED IN THE 041607Z MHS
    
25. 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL AND WEAKER
    
26. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
    
28. ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77-102 KNOTS.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
33. POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 77 KTS AT 041815Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 041815Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 041815Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 74 KTS AT 041815Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
60. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
    
61. OF THE STR. A SLIGHT, SHORT-LIVED DIP IS POSSIBLE IN THE TRACK FROM
    
62. TAU 24 TO TAU 36 AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES WELL TO
    
63. THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD DRIVING THE SYSTEM
    
64. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
    
65. RECURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
    
66. THE STR. TC 13S SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH
    
67. RE-INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
68. IMPROVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.   
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    
71. AGREEMENT, WITH A 55NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96, DIVERGING TO
    
72. 110NM BY TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS RECURVE. PROBABILISTIC
    
73. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING
    
74. HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    
75. REMAINS CHALLENGING, DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE COMPACT STRUCTURE OF
    
76. THE SYSTEM AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
    
77. HAFS-A SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 36 TO ABOUT 83 KNOTS
    
78. THEN A STEADY RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 103 KNOTS BY TAU 108. COAMPS-TC
    
79. (GFS), ON THE OTHER HAND, IS ERRATIC AND UNLIKELY SHOWING A RAPID
    
80. WEAKENING TREND TO 60 KNOTS THEN FLAT TREND THROUGH TAU 120.   
    
81. 
    
82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
83.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
84.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
85.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
87. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 050047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 86.9 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY, BUT IS STILL CLOUDY-EYED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COOLED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR, WHILE IT IS A LITTLE LESS MARKED
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. WITH THE LAST GCOM-W MICROWAVE OF 1944UTC
SHOWING A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, THERE ARE SIGNS OF CONTINUED
INTENSITY, WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS AND USING DVORAK ANALYSIS OVER SHORT PERIODS, WE CAN
DEFINE A T OF 4.5 WELL ABOVE THE ADT ANALYSES. WINDS OF THE ORDER OF
70KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED FOR VINCE AT 00UTC, ALSO EXCEEDING
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS SET TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. T THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE,
GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN FLOW AND STEERING IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE A LITTLE MORE PRESENT, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A
SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHERLY TRACK. DISPERSION
REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE AS SUNDAY APPROACHES ON
THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, REVEALING A FEW MORE ERRORS ON
THE TRACK, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK.

IN TERMS OF THE ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T SLOW DOWN
TOO MUCH BY SUNDAY AS IT HEADS SOUTHWEST. AS FOR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY PRESENT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD STRENGTHEN. VINCE
SHOULD THEREFORE UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING A LITTLE MORE PRESENT, THE DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
THEREFORE LEAVES A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT AT THESE TIMES, LINKED TO A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF
THE EYEWALL, COULD OCCUR. IMPACTED BY THE SHEAR AND MORE PRESENT DRY
AIR, VINCE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
西侧薄弱，可能还有风切影响

LsfyHarold

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 02 月 05 日 10 时
“文斯”向西偏南方向移动

时        间：5日08时（北京时）

海        域：西南印度洋

命        名：“文斯”，VINCE

中心位置：南纬18.6度、东经86.9度

强度等级：强热带气旋3级

最大风力：12级（36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级 ）

中心气压：978百帕

参考位置：澳大利亚科科斯群岛西南方向约1300公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“文斯”由10级加强到12级

预报结论：“文斯” 将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度还将继续增强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月05日08时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO20 FMEE 050623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

---

WTIO30 FMEE 050708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW ALMOST ANNULAR. THE SAR IMAGE FROM 2343Z
CONFIRMS WINDS OF 75KT AT 00UTC. THE BESTRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN
MODIFIED IN THIS DIRECTION. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0315Z ALSO MEASURES
WINDS AROUND 75KT. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3H GIVES A T
OF 5.0-, THE MET 6.0. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE AROUND 80KT. THE
RSMC ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE TO MAINTAIN VINCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
WITH WINDS OF 80KT.


IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS SET TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE MAIN FLOW AND
TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLIP TOWARDS THE
NORTHERLY TRACK. DISPERSION REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT INCREASES
ON SUNDAY AT THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE DISPERSION ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN, BRINGING VINCE'S INTENSIFICATION TO AN END. VINCE'S
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM SUNDAY. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY, DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THESE TIMES, LINKED TO A POSSIBLE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, COULD ALSO OCCUR.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=