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本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-28 22:50 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 281500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 94.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 94.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.8S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.8S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.4S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 94.1E.
28MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
328 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: UPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY AND
FORECAST INTENSITY.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 281500 AMD
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
- NR 012A AMENDED//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 94.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
- ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (COURTNEY) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
- THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
- IMAGERY SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. THE
- EYE BEGAN TO EMERGE AT 1000Z, REACHED ITS PEAK AROUND 1200Z AND IN
- THE SUBSEQUENT HOUR HAS BEGUN TO COOL AND BECOME A BIT MORE RAGGED.
- HOWEVER, 89GHZ COLOR ENHANCED MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 281126 WSF-M
- PASS AND A 281215Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL BEAUTIFULLY SYMMETRICAL
- MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH A STRONG EYEWALL ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
- OF THE EYE, BUT THE EASTERN SIDE IS MUCH WEAKER OR EVEN OPEN IN THE
- SSMIS IMAGE. COMPARISON WITH THE 37GHZ IMAGE IN THE WSF-M DATA
- SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT, DUE TO MID-LEVEL
- MODERATE SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE PASSES
- NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE, USING A BLEND OF THE AGENCY FIXES NOTED ABOVE. PGTW
- BROKE CONSTRAINTS TO OBTAIN THE T6.0 ESTIMATE, WHILE THE OTHER
- AGENCIES DID NOT ALTHOUGH THEY DID OBTAIN DT VALUES OF T6.0. THE
- OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY CATCHING UP BUT ARE FOR THE MOST
- PART NOT TRACKING THE EYE AND STILL USING UNIFORM CDO METHOD. THE
- ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS
- AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS
- STILL A FACTOR HOWEVER, EVIDENCED BY THE OPEN EYEWALL ON THE
- UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE VORTEX.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
- KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- APRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 280940Z
- CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 281140Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 48 KTS AT 281140Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 82 KTS AT 281217Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 75 KTS AT 281230Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS AN AMENDED FORECAST, UPDATED
- TO REFLECT THE ONSET OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHICH HAS LED TO AN
- INCREASE OF 25 KNOTS IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY BEYOND THE EXPECTED
- INTENSITY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
- FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS REGULAR FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE
- SYSTEM WILL ARC SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT
- ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO A POSITION
- SOUTHEAST OF TC 27S. THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AFTER TAU 72 AS IT
- BEGINS TO RUN INTO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO
- THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY A BIT MORE OVER THE
- NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 115
- KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
- QUITE COMPACT AND THUS PRONE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY,
- AND RAPID EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES (ERC), WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
- INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT M-PERC ERC PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN
- 10 PERCENT BUT LIKELY TO QUICKLY RAMP UP DUE TO THE RAPID
- INTENSIFICATION (RI). REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE LEFT IN
- THE TANK BUT AFTER TAU 24, SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHARPLY AS
- A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 36, SHEAR BEGINS TO
- PICK UP, AND SHARPLY INCREASES BEYOND TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
- SOUTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART AFTER
- TAU 72 AS SHEAR INCREASES TO MORE THAN 40 KNOTS, BEGINNING A RAPID
- WEAKENING PHASE. DRY AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH JUST
- AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETELY ENGULF THE VORTEX SHORTLY
- THEREAFTER, DOOMING TC 27S TO SLOW DEMISE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72,
- THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW (STT),
- HOWEVER, IT IS FORECAST THAT IT WILL BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AT THE
- SAME TIME AND THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING STT. AS
- THE SYSTEM WEAKENS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, THE REMNANT
- VORTEX WILL MAKE A SHARP TURN WESTWARD, STEERED BY THE
- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS, FOR THE MOST
- PART, IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONTAINED
- WITHIN A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE AND SHOWS AGREEMENT ON THE
- OVERALL TRACK SHAPE AND TRACK SPEEDS. THE TWO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS
- ARE THE GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH DEPICT THE SYSTEM
- TRACKING STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
- THE GUIDANCE TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- CONSISTENT WITH THE ORIGINAL, NON-AMENDED FORECAST AND THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM
- THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
- WILL EITHER MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OR INTENSIFY ANOTHER FIVE
- KNOTS OR SO, THEN FLATTEN OUT FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
- STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS
- ARE THE DTOP RI AID WHICH TAKES TC 27S TO A LOFTY PEAK OF 140 KNOTS
- IN 18 HOURS AND THE HAFS-A WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT 125 KNOTS.
- BOTH SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY LIKELY BUT CANNOT BE
- DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: UPDATED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND
- FORECAST INTENSITY.//
- NNNN
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-3-28 09:00
发表于 2025-3-28 16:35
