中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Azores, and on
Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
Valley.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a
tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle
part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in
a few days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during
the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores,
and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
Valley.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next
week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.  
This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

ygsj24

804
ABPZ20 KNHC 291133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico in a day or two. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system drifts slowly westward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
currently producing limited shower activity.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney

ygsj24

368
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico in a day or two. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system drifts slowly westward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

511
ABNT20 KNHC 291753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this
week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the coast of western
Africa is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney

ygsj24

574
ABPZ20 KNHC 300505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next day or two. Gradual development of
the disturbance is possible after that, if the system remains
offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is forecast
to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially move
northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of formation,
heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico
throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,
on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.  This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week.  Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of
this week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on
Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.  While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for much of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already adversely
affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily offshore of southern Mexico. The system is forecast to
move erratically through mid-week before drifting northward towards
the southern Mexican coast, and some additional development of the
system is possible while it remains offshore. Regardless of
formation, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin