中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly offshore of
southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through
mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican
coast, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development while the system remains offshore. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly offshore of
southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through
mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican
coast, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development while the system remains offshore. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually form off the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then
begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of
Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by
substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have continued to become better
organized this afternoon. Although the system does not yet appear to
have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form as soon as tonight or
tomorrow. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of
days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along most of the
coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

692
ABPZ20 KNHC 010532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin
moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by
this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet
appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days
before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of
the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco with disorganized thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within a few days. The
disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the
coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this
weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Although the system
does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander near
southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and
northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mora

ygsj24

793
ABNT20 KNHC 022347
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico
during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

174
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with a low
pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is forecast to  
move slowly northward for the next couple of days, and some gradual
development is possible during that time.  By the weekend,
atmospheric conditions should become increasingly hostile,
preventing any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days.  Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days.  Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams