中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western
Gulf of Mexico.  A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over the south-central or southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Gradual development is possible after the low develops, and a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the
early or middle portions of next week while the low moves slowly
eastward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over
portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some limited
development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should
become less conducive and prevent further development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.  A broad area
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of  
Africa on Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

ygsj24

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 050513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portion of
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and
has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk,
located over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather located across portions of South
Florida, the Florida Straits and the northwestern Bahamas is
expected to move northeastward, where an area of low pressure could
form near the northwestern Bahamas.  Some limited tropical or
subtropical development is possible while the low moves
northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph.  However,
upper-level winds are likely to increase in a couple days, which
should prevent any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days.  Afterward, environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.  The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo
Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located across portions of South
Florida, the Florida Straits, and the northwestern Bahamas is
expected to move northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic by
tomorrow. Some additional tropical or subtropical development is
possible while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward
around 15 mph. However, upper-level winds are likely to increase by
Wednesday, which should limit any further development after that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, crossing the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin