中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

pocketbox

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days.  Afterward, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late
Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

ygsj24

补发

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern
Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
Last-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has become
better defined on the northern edge of a region of showers and
thunderstorms. The system is already producing gale-force winds, but
environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for
additional tropical or subtropical development over the next day or
so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around
15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to increase further by
Wednesday night, which should end any chances for further
development. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late
Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.  By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time.  Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less
defined since yesterday.  The trough of low pressure continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the middle part of next
week well offshore of southwestern Mexico.  Thereafter, gradual
development is possible as the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

924
ABPZ20 KNHC 171729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the middle part
of next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico.  Thereafter,
gradual development is possible as the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of
next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico.  Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during
the middle to latter portion of next week as the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen