中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well
offshore of southwestern Mexico.  Gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182329
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well
offshore of southwestern Mexico.  Gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days several
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the
middle of next week while moving westward at about 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific.  The combination of the
remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event are forecast to result in formation of a new low pressure
system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days.  
Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next
week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific.  The combination of the
remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low
pressure system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of
days.  Additional development is expected after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

515
ABPZ20 KNHC 192336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific.  The combination of the
remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low
pressure system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or
so.  Additional development is expected after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

940
ABPZ20 KNHC 200506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late Sunday.  The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so.  Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late today.  The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so.  Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning, which is due in part to the remnants of Nadine.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days, while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

ygsj24

726
ABPZ20 KNHC 251733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the central portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form in the western part of the basin
over a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system moves
westward around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly