中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312343
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low pressure
located a little over 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined this
afternoon.  However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized.  Some further development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly to the
west-northwest.  By late this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive to development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.  Afterward,
some slow development is possible while the system meanders or
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

pocketbox

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so.  Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

ygsj24

247
ABNT20 KNHC 011136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so.  Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles.  After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.  Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 400 miles
west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity.  
Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves
generally eastward during the next few days.  Additional information
on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012323
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean.
Additional gradual development is possible over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or
northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean including Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and Cuba.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward near
the Greater Antilles.  After that time, this system is expected to
be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms near the center of a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores continue to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development during the next day or two, and the
system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves
generally east-southeastward during the next few days. Interest in
the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located over the western portion of
the eastern Pacific basin.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is developing well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, currently associated with an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible as it begins to drift slowly
eastward or east-northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Thirteen-E, located over the western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate a broad area of low pressure has formed well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, with some recent
increase in disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual
development of this system is possible through the early to middle
part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the
central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land
areas of the western Caribbean during the next few days, including
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure extending from near Puerto Rico eastward
over the adjacent waters of the Atlantic is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms near and over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. Then, this system is
expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands
westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
near a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles
west-northwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions could allow
for additional development today and tonight, and the system could
become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by late this weekend.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Lane, located over the western portion of
the eastern Pacific basin.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
further development of this system is possible over the next few
days and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lane are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lane are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.  
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty
winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward
for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. By early next week, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next few days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean just east
of the Azores Islands.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system over the south-central
Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two as it moves generally
northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Interests in
those locations should monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba during the next few days. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern Bahamas
and adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or so while it moves westward toward Cuba and
the Bahamas. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending
its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next couple of days across the Greater
Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the
northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week.  Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time as it moves
generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi