中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

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2. Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern
Bahamas and adjacent waters. This system is expected to be absorbed
into Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AL18) over the Caribbean
Sea by late Monday, and development before that time is no longer
anticipated. Regardless, locally heavy rains are possible during the
next couple of days across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located just west of Jamaica.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.  Portions of
this system are forecast to move westward during the next day or so
and could form a low pressure near the northern Leeward by Thursday.
Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during
the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over
the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located just southeast of Little Cayman Island.

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands.  A portion of this system is forecast to begin
moving westward by early Wednesday, and an area of low pressure
could form near the northern Leeward Islands by Wednesday night.  
Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during
the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward,
passing near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Thursday, and approaching the Southeast Bahamas by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

311
ABNT20 KNHC 071136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Leeward Islands:
A trough of low pressure over the northern Leeward Islands continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater
Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102312
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael, located over the central Gulf of
Mexico.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible
late this week while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while moving slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea.  After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend.  Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi