‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：聂高臻  签发：张 玲  2024 年 11 月 16 日 18 时
“贝基”再次加强为热带气旋

时       间：16日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬14.0度、东经73.0度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：975百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1780公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由12级加强到13级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月16日14时00分）

renzhetegong

清晨SAR扫描显示明显的双眼墙结构，风力80kt

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 161227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 72.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

THE 0036Z SAR PASS LAST NIGHT UPDATED THE BEST-TRACK AND UPGRADED
BHEKI TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH WINDS OF 65KT FROM 00UTC THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI'S CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
ONE EYE STILL VISIBLE IN BOTH INFRA-RED AND VISIBLE. DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS MAINTAINS A T OF 4.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL PRESENT. THE GCOM
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0851Z SHOWS HOWEVER A SLIGHT DISSYMMETRY DUE TO
UPPER WIND SHEAR (ANALYZED AT 15KT BY CIMSS AT 06Z) WITH CONVECTION
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITH A SLIGHT TILT
BETWEEN 37 AND 85GHZ. IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AVAILABLE, BHEKI IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
BASIN GENERATES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI ONTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. BHEKI SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARDS
ON MONDAY, DRIVEN BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. BHEKI
WOULD THEN CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
ON THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS ON THE SYSTEM'S TURN AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK.
INDEED, THE AMERICAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND MOST OTHER DETERMINIST
MODELS PROPOSE A DUE WEST TRACK, LEAVING MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND
WELL AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL, JOINED BY ARPEGE, PROPOSES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK, TAKING THE CENTER OVER MAURITIUS/REUNION ISLAND. THE CLUSTER
OF RUNS IN THE EUROPEAN ASSEMBLY MODEL ALSO TENDS TO SUGGEST A MORE
SOUTHERLY SCENARIO. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE TRACK PREDICTED BY RSMC
REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY, BUT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
AVERAGE MODEL AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED, THE SCENARIO THAT
WOULD HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON MAURITIUS/REUNION ISLAND COULD
TAKE ON GREATER IMPORTANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW ADVISORIES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITH LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS AND STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
BHEKI SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK ON SUNDAY. IT
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEN, FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERLY
SHEAR STRESS AND THE PRESENCE OF COOLER WATERS COULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- A DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF RAIN OR WIND.
- A CYCLONIC SWELL OF 4 TO 6M IS EXPECTED TO REACH RODRIGUES FROM
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND :
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION
ISLAND.=

Ninja_Z

1322Z WSF-M1 MWI微波扫描

置换完成
但是东北方向的新雨带又围了上来

觀雲趣

冰凌蔷薇

13Z的SAR 90KT
同时，目前形态相比13Z已有明显加强，02S可能已经达到MH水平。

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 161814
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 15.13S
D. 71.60E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0. PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LINDGREN

---

TXXS26 KNES 161756
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  16/1730Z
C.  15.1S
D.  71.8E
E.  ONE/MET-9
F.  T5.5/5.5
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK

renzhetegong

WTIO30 FMEE 161836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)
2.A POSITION 2024/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 71.6 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE
DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/18 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/20 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100

120H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED, WITH A WARMING BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY DECHICCATED EYE, AND A COOLING CONVECTION. DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS ON FINE TIME STEPS DEFINES
A T OF 5.0+. A SAR-RCM PASS AT 1337UTC ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BHEKI ARE OF THE ORDER OF
80KT, LEAVING IT AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
BASIN IS GENERATING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. BHEKI
SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN ON MONDAY, DRIVEN BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. A FEW CHANGES THEREAFTER, AS THIS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS A
LITTLE LESS PRESENT ON THE DIFFERENT ANALYSIS TIME, AND BHEKI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS A STRONG DISPERSION FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS ON THE SYSTEM'S TURN AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK. A TREND TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT IN THE MODELS, IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST OF THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL. THE RSMC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS TREND, SUGGESTING A SCENARIO THAT WOULD
HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES, IN A PHASE OF WEAKENING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITH
LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI SHOULD CONTINUE TO

INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK LATE ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD THUS REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BUT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DISPERSION AT THIS POINT TOO. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH COOLER
WATERS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT LETTING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING
AREA, THIS CONTEXT COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BHEKI
WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, BECOMING A DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES OVER MAURITIUS
AND REUNION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- A DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
IN TERMS OF RAIN OR WIND.
- A CYCLONIC SWELL OF 4 TO 6M IS EXPECTED TO REACH RODRIGUES FROM TUESDAY.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF
WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND :
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING,
ALLOWING IT TO TRANSITION TO THE STAGE OF A CLOSING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A DETERIORATION IN SEA
STATE AND WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO
KEEP INFORMED OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 71.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 71.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 15.9S 70.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 16.5S 69.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 17.0S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.2S 68.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.4S 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 17.7S 59.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 18.1S 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 71.4E.
16NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 874
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 162100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 71.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 874 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WITH A NEWLY DEVELOPED, DEFINED EYE AND
    
20. SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE EYEWALL. 02S IS ANALYZED
    
21. TO HAVE UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
    
22. (65-100 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02S IS IN A
    
23. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
24. ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA
    
25. SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
27. INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
28. THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. ADDITIONALLY, A 161337 RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWS A MAX OF 90 KTS AND
    
30. THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THEN.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
35. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
41.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 161800Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 91 KTS AT 161800Z
    
44.    CIMSS DPRINT: 90 KTS AT 161830Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
48.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
62. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    
63. THE STR. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
    
64. ENSUES. NEAR TAU 48, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF
    
65. THE SYSTEM AND WILL DRIVE IT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
    
66. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 02S IS
    
67. EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
    
68. 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND VERTICAL WIND
    
69. SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KTS. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL
    
70. CAUSE 02S TO WEAKEN QUICKLY FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A
    
71. STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND
    
72. APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, NEARING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH NEAR
    
73. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
76. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 02S THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, MODELS
    
77. QUICKLY DIVERGE TO A 160 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. SPREAD
    
78. CONTINUES TO OPEN THROUGH TAU 120 WITH POSITIONS RANGING FROM 14S
    
79. TO 22S LATITUDES. GALWEM MAKES UP THE NORTHERNMOST MEMBER OF
    
80. GUIDANCE WHILE ECMWF MAKES UP THE SOUTHERNMOST MEMBER.  THE JTWC
    
81. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
82. THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
    
83. IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAFS-A KEEPS
    
84. THE VORTEX STRONGER THAN HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS THOUGH. THE JTWC
    
85. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
    
86. CONFIDENCE.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
91.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 170031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 71.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED,
WITH A BETTER-DEFINED EYE. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS DEFINES A T OF
5.5, GIVING MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 90KT. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS,
BHEKI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, WITH A COLD CONVECTIVE RING.
BHEKI THUS REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN IS GENERATING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. BHEKI SHOULD THEN
SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN ON MONDAY, DRIVEN BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANGES
THEREAFTER, AS THIS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES LESS PRESENT OVER THE
DIFFERENT ANALYSIS TIME, AND BHEKI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS A STRONG
DISPERSION FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS ON THE SYSTEM'S TURN AND SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. A TREND TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK CONTINUES
TO EMERGE, IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST OF THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODEL. THE PATH FORECAST BY RSMC FOLLOWS THIS TREND, LEADING TO A
SCENARIO THAT WOULD HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES, IN
A PHASE OF WEAKENING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITH LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI IS CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK LATE ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD THUS MAINTAIN
ITS STATUS AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH
COOLER WATERS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT
LETTING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING AREA, THIS CONTEXT COULD LEAD
TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BHEKI
WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM UNTIL TUESDAY,
WHEN IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS, BECOMING A DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- A DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF RAIN OR WIND.
- A CYCLONIC SWELL OF 4 TO 6M IS EXPECTED TO REACH RODRIGUES FROM
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND :
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING, ALLOWING IT TO TRANSITION TO THE STAGE
OF A CLOSING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A DETERIORATION IN SEA STATE AND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=