马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 60.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 60.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 13.3S 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 13.0S 54.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 12.5S 51.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.4S 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 13.6S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 15.3S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.7S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.4E.
09JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 092100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 60.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 07S WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
    
21. APPARENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS
    
22. EXPANDING OUTWARD IN THOSE DIRECTIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
23. INDICATES THAT 07S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
    
24. CHARACTERIZED BY THE ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
    
25. WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
    
26. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
27. ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
28. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. ADDITIONALLY, A 091137Z CIMSS DMINT ESTIMATE WAS 42 KTS.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
40.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
55. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 07S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
58. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
    
59. SOUTH THROUGH TAU 48. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48
    
60. ALONG THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
    
61. EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
    
62. AROUND TAU 96, 07S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
    
63. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT RUNS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
64. STR. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
    
65. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A PEAK OF AROUND 70 KTS AS THE
    
66. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE. NEAR TAU 48, 07S WILL MAKE LANDFALL
    
67. AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
    
68. THE AMOUNT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. IF IT
    
69. MAKES LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTH, THEN IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH MORE THAN
    
70. CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT STANDS, 07S WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIP
    
71. AND THEN WEAKEN TO AROUND 60 KTS. IT WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
    
72. TAU 120 AS INCREASED SHEAR (20-25 KTS) FIGHTS THE WARM (30 C) SEA
    
73. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IN THE EXTENDED
    
74. FORECAST (PAST TAU 120), FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE AS THE
    
75. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL GREATLY IMPROVE.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
78. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 07S THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, MODELS
    
79. DIVERGE DUE TO THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN AROUND THE STR. GFS TAKES
    
80. A WIDER TURN, CLOSER TO MOZAMBIQUE, WHILE ECMWF TAKES A SHARPER
    
81. TURN, CLOSER TO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
82. IS IN WORSE AGREEMENT. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PROBABILITIES
    
83. OVER THE NEXT 36 ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT, SO IT SHOULD NOT
    
84. BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
    
85. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RI CHANCE AND THEN THE VARIANCE
    
86. REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
91.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
92.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 100030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 59.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION BREATHED HEAVILY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER
WITH THE EMERGENCE OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE PUFFS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z,
WHILE STILL RETAINING SUFFICIENT CURVATURE. MOREOVER, THE SPREADING
OF A LARGE CIRRUS PLUME IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM
SUGGESTS A FINE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL RATHER TRICKY TO FIND, DUE TO A LACK OF AVAILABLE
MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THE BESTRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED USING AN
AMSU-B IMAGE FROM 1732Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES BY RSMC POINT A
CI OF 3.5-, MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 45KT, AT THE HIGH
END OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK; OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DIKELEDI WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDING ON SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
OVER MADAGASCAR LANDMASS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS
AMONG SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK INCREASES FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN GUIDANCE . THE MAJORITY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO EMERGE ON SUNDAY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
CURVING ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO
A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS GUIDANCE,
WHICH OFFERS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPROVING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARDS.
DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM VERY WARM WATERS AND HIGH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THESE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HELP THE SYSTEM TO
SYMMETRIZE BETTER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FRIDAY AND UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED,
BUT WILL POTENTIALLY DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL
MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ) OR ON AN INCREASE OF THE VWS
COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES
LAND. IN WHICH CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. THIS IS AT LEAST THE APPROACH OF THE RSMC
INTENSITY FORECAST. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LAND, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE
RAPIDLY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRACK FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND OR
CLOSE TO LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING BY TOMORROW FRIDAY MORNING.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 8 TO 10
METRES NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED
MOUNTAINOUS RELIEF.=

恒信金仁

上一个莫峡C5失败立马就留给这一个的感觉

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王海平  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 10 日 10 时

“迪克莱迪”向偏西方向移动

时       间：10日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬14.2度、东经59.0度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：994百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港北偏东方向约680公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由8级加强到9级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月10日08时00分）

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 100317

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELDI)

B. 10/0230Z

C. 13.50S

D. 57.99E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

TXXS26 KNES 100000
TCSSIO

A.  07S (DIKELEDI)

B.  09/2330Z

C.  13.8S

D.  58.7E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T3.0/3.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...COVERDALE

=

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 100641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED, WITH A MORE COMPACT AND SHARPER SPIRAL BAND PATTERN. A SAR
AT THE EDGE OF THE MOW AT 0137 SHOWED A STRUCTURE THAT WAS STILL
MODERATELY ORGANIZED, WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE SEMI-SOUTH CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0549Z BEGINS TO SHOW AN EYE ON
THE 85GHTZ AND AN IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. DIKELEDI IS UPGRADED TO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH 50KT WINDS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK; OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DIKELEDI WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDING ON SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
OVER MADAGASCAR LANDMASS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS
AMONG SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK INCREASES FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN GUIDANCE . THE MAJORITY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO EMERGE ON SUNDAY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
CURVING ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO
A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS GUIDANCE,
WHICH OFFERS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPROVING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARDS.
DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM VERY WARM WATERS AND HIGH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THESE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HELP THE SYSTEM TO
SYMMETRIZE BETTER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FRIDAY AND UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED,
BUT WILL POTENTIALLY DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL
MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ) OR ON AN INCREASE OF THE VWS
COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES
LAND. IN WHICH CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. THIS IS AT LEAST THE APPROACH OF THE RSMC
INTENSITY FORECAST. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LAND, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE
RAPIDLY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRACK FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND OR
CLOSE TO LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 8 TO 10
METRES NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED
MOUNTAINOUS RELIEF.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF
OVER 150MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 57.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 57.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 13.0S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 12.6S 51.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.5S 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.1S 46.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.0S 43.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.6S 40.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.6S 40.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 56.3E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 100900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 57.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
    
18. SYSTEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED
    
19. ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TRANSVERSE BANDING AND ELONGATION
    
20. ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, AN INDICATION OF
    
21. ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
22. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100538Z
    
23. GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF CLOSELY-VALUED AUTOMATED AND
    
25. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
26. WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
31. THE SOUTH
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
36.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
37.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 100600Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 100600Z
    
40.    CIMSS DPRNT: 40 KTS AT 100600Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE
    
58. STEERING STR UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
    
59. WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD. THE
    
60. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO 65KTS BY TAU
    
61. 24; AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR
    
62. AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL REDUCE IT TO 50KTS BY TAU 48 AS IT DRIFTS
    
63. INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING POLEWARD
    
64. OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VWS OVER THE WARM CHANNEL WILL RE-INTENSIFY
    
65. THE CYCLONE TO 65KTS BY TAU 120.
    
66. 
    
67. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
    
68. WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 160NM BY TAU 72, THEN 201NM BY TAU 120 WITH
    
69. NAVGEM THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
70. TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER
    
71. TAU 72.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
74.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
75.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
76.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
77.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
78. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王海平  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 10 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”向偏西方向移动

时       间：10日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬13.5度、东经57.1度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：990百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加安塔拉哈东偏北方向约750公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由8级加强到10级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月10日14时00分）