马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 020911

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NW OF MAURITIUS)

B. 02/0830Z

C. 19.20S

D. 56.28E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED NEAR OR
UNDER COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.5.
MET YIELDS A 2.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

TXXS29 KNES 021151
TCSSIO

A.  11S (NONAME)

B.  02/1130Z

C.  20.1S

D.  55.8E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T2.0/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A LLCC NEAR A LARGE
COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS A 2.0
DUE TO A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE SYSTEM. PT AGREES WITH MET AND DT. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER POSITION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...NGUYEN

=

Leonardo

怎么还不命名？

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WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 011   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 55.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 55.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 19.3S 53.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.9S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.3S 50.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.1S 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 17.9S 44.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.1S 42.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 18.3S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 55.3E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

---

WTXS31 PGTW 021500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 55.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 55.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 19.3S 53.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.9S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.3S 50.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.1S 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 17.9S 44.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.1S 42.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 18.3S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 55.3E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGE FROM A SIX-HOURLY WARNING TO A
12 HOURLY WARNING FOR TC 13S AND 14S.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 021500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.3S 55.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 77 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 11S WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
    
19. OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
    
20. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 11S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
21. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
    
22. LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    
23. TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
24. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
26. AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
31. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
36.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 021200Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 021200Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
53. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 11S IS FORECAST IS TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
    
56. THROUGH TAU 24. AROUND TAU 24, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD,
    
57. WHICH WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. JUST
    
58. BEFORE TAU 48, 11S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL, NEAR TOAMASINA.
    
59. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD, ACROSS
    
60. THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. NEAR TAU 84, 11S WILL
    
61. ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK
    
62. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
63. 11S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, TO AROUND 50
    
64. KTS, DUE TO THE LESSENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER MAKING
    
65. LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL CAUSE 11S TO WEAKEN AS IT
    
66. CROSSES MADAGASCAR. ONCE WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
    
67. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY IMPROVE WITH VERY WARM SEA
    
68. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW
    
69. 11S TO REINTENSIFY TO AROUND 45 KTS AT TAU 120.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
72. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 11S THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, LAND
    
73. INTERACTION CAUSES THE MODELS TO DIVERGE. GALWEM AND UKMET TRACKS
    
74. THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MAKING LANDFALL WHILE THE
    
75. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACK NEARLY STRAIGHT
    
76. WESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE MAIN
    
77. GROUPING OF GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
    
78. CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE DUE
    
79. TO THE TIMING OF LANDFALL AND TIME OVER LAND. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
    
80. TREND IS SIMILAR, WITH WEAKENING OVER LAND AND REINTENSIFICATION
    
81. WITHIN THE CHANNEL. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO
    
82. CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
87.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
88.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
89. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 021959
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 54.1 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 40 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED VERY INTENSE, ESPECIALLY IN ITS WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM AT 1230Z AND F17 AT 1500Z) SHOW SEVERAL
AREAS OF CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF AN APPROXIMATE BARYCENTER,
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO OR THREE VORTICITY AREAS. A 1456Z SAR
RCM1 PASS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES WITH WINDS
REACHING 30/40 KT VERY LOCALLY UNDER THE CONVECTION, BUT WITHOUT ANY
PARTICULAR ORGANIZATION. THE 1817Z ASCAT-B PASS, AVAILABLE ONLY AFTER
THE 18UTC ANALYSIS, CONFIRMS A FAIRLY BROAD WIND STRUCTURE, WITHIN
WHICH TWO OR THREE ROTATION AREAS CAN BE SPOTTED, AND WITH WINDS
REACHING UP TO 25/30 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG ITS WESTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN FLANK. THE ESTIMATED CENTER'S LOCATION AT 18.9S/54.1E
IS AN APPROXIMATE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS ROTATION AREAS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, INDUCING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST. LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR IS STILL EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. DISPERSION
INCREASES EVEN MORE SHARPLY WHEN THE VORTEX RE-EMERGES IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AS THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR
DECREASES, ALTHOUGH STAYING NEAR 10-15 KT, A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE MORE OR LESS RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INTENSIFICATION TO
MODERATE OR EVEN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL OVER TOAMASINA PROVINCE (MADAGASCAR). HOWEVER, DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN UNDERGO A NEW
PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEPEND ON THE
QUALITY OF ITS INNER STRUCTURE (FOLLOWING ITS 24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER
MADAGASCAR) AND ITS INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
TOTALS AROUND 100-200 MM IN 24H LOCALLY.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
(ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
100-200 MM IN 24 TO 48H, LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 030039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 53.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85

120H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE IN THE
SYSTEM'S WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND THE CDO HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
FRAGMENTED THAN AT 18UTC. HOWEVER, THE 2137Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A STILL RATHER POORLY CONSOLIDATED INNER STRUCTURE AND
THE CENTER REMAINS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LIKELY SOMEWHERE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AREA. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
FIGHTING AGAINST SOME MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION, SLOWING DOWN ITS SYMMETRIZATION. IN THE
ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT, WITH NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS CONSIDERED MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STEERS THE
SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS
STILL EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN MORE
SHARPLY WHEN THE VORTEX RE-EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT, INDUCING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK
FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SINCE THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS
SLIGHTLY DECREASED, ALTHOUGH STAYING NEAR 10-15 KT, A MORE OR LESS
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE MORE OR LESS RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INTENSIFICATION TO
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE (MADAGASCAR). DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS
HIGH, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEPEND ON THE
QUALITY OF ITS INNER STRUCTURE (FOLLOWING ITS 24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER
MADAGASCAR).


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
TOTALS AROUND 100-200 MM IN 24H LOCALLY.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
(ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
100-200 MM IN 24 TO 48H, LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 012   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 51.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 51.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 17.8S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 17.5S 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 17.4S 47.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 17.4S 45.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 17.7S 42.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.7S 39.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 17.8S 36.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 50.8E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 030300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 51.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM,
    
18. POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MADAGASCAR, HAS DEEPENED AND THE
    
19. CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXPANDED AS IT TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW
    
20. LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
    
21. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE
    
22. 022133 AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS ALSO
    
23. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
    
24. AND AUTOMATED CIMSS ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR
    
25. CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
26. WITH WARM SST, MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT VWS. ADDITIONALLY,
    
27. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS SUBSIDED.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
    
32. SOUTHWEST.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 022202Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 02330Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
    
58. STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AROUND
    
59. TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, EXIT INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE
    
60. CHANNEL AROUND TAU 60, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL
    
61. MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TAU 120. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A
    
62. MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM; HOWEVER BY TAU 12 WILL
    
63. DROP DOWN TO 45KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL
    
64. THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, BACK
    
65. ON WATER, TC 11S WILL REGAIN INTENSITY UP TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.  
    
66. 
    
67. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT BUT WITH
    
68. A WIDE SPREAD TO 323NM AT TAU 72 AND 351NM AT TAU 120. THIS, PLUS
    
69. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
    
70. THAT CAN ALSO IMPACT THE TRACK, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
    
71. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
    
72. CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.
    
73. 
    
74. 
    
75. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
76.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
77.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
78.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
79.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
80. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 030632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 51.9 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FROM A CDO PATTERN WITH
A CENTER AT THE EASTERN LIMIT OF CONVECTION TO A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
THE EXISTENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR STILL LEAVES THE CENTER
SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE SPIRAL OF THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, ALSO
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN PART OF FAIDA. DUE TO IMPROVED
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES, A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.5+ CAN BE
PERFORMED. SYSTEM 07-20242025 HAS THEREFORE BEEN NAMED FAIDA AT 05UTC
BY THE MADAGASCAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 35KT, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CURVED BAND.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
DRIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOVEMENT. A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS
STILL ENVISAGED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE
OF DISPERSION EVEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL, AND A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING
COULD LEAVE THE LANDFALL UNCERTAIN BY +/- 3 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
DISPERSION INCREASES FURTHER AS THE VORTEX EMERGES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST
IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH A
TENDENCY TO FOLLOW THE AMERICAN CONSENSUS AND GFS MODEL A LITTLE MORE
CLOSELY. DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH ON THIS TRACK, INDUCING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST, BUT A NEW LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THERE ARE NO NEW CLUES: WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
SHEAR CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DRY AIR STILL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SYSTEM, REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE IF THE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MORE OR LESS RAPID. AN INTENSIFICATION
TO THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH
MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT
RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE QUALITY OF ITS INTERNAL STRUCTURE (FOLLOWING ITS 24-HOUR
TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR). THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE
REACHED BEFORE THE LANDFALL.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
TOTALS AROUND 100-200 MM IN 24H LOCALLY.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
(ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN
CONNECTION WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MONSOON FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 100-200 MM IN 24 TO 48H, LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 030922

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 17.85S

D. 50.99E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo