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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-5 17:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.6S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 85.2E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 050900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR
- 008//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 85.7E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 762 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY
- DEVELOPING PINHOLE EYE FEATURE, IN A REPEAT OF 24 HOURS AGO, WHEN A
- PINHOLE EYE EMERGED AT 0600Z. TC 13S (VINCE) REMAINS VERY COMPACT,
- AND THE CYCLING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE LAST DAY,
- SUCCESSFULLY PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. A
- LONG-TERM LOOP OF THE ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY INDICATES THE
- SYSTEM HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH AN EYE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT
- JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED RIGHT AT
- ANALYSIS TIME AND IS ALREADY FILLING IN A BIT. THE INITIAL POSITION
- IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE
- AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 050357Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
- IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, IN
- LINE WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE ESTIMATES NOTED ABOVE. COINCIDENT
- SAR PASSES FROM BOTH SENTINEL-1A AND RCM-2 SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
- 85 KNOTS AT THAT TIME AND THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THEN.
- RAW ADT VALUES BRIEFLY REACHED T6.3 BUT HAVE ALREADY COLLAPSED AS
- THE EYE DISAPPEARS ONCE MORE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
- WARM SSTS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY
- SHEAR. THE LATEST CIMSS AMV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
- PATTERN IS BREAKING AROUND THE SYSTEM, REDUCING LOCALIZED SHEAR
- EVEN FURTHER.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
- KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
- FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 050645Z
- CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 050615Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 89 KTS AT 050600Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 72 KTS AT 050600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
- THROUGH TAU 96, ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC
- RIDGING PATTERN. TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN A KNOT OR TWO OVER THE
- NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
- SOUTH. NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE TC 13S SOUTHWARD, THE TROUGH
- WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE RIDGE AND LOOSEN THE GRADIENT A
- BIT. THE RIDGE BUILDS AND REPOSITIONS TO THE EAST OF TC 13S BY TAU
- 72 AND TRACK SPEEDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN
- INFLECTION POINT. TC 13S WILL TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 96,
- AS IT QUICKLY ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR WHICH WILL ALSO BE SLIDING
- NORTHWARD SIMULTANEOUSLY. IN TERM OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS
- LIKELY ALREADY INTENSIFIED TO AT LEAST 100 KNOTS JUST SINCE
- ANALYSIS TIME AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS.
- ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY, AS ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP
- CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE EYE
- AND ROTATING UPSHEAR. HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM CAN
- MAINTAIN 100-PLUS KNOT INTENSITY FOR LONG AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
- INCREASE A NOTCH AFTER TAU 48, AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
- PRESENT AN EVER-PRESENT POSSIBILITY. STEADY-STATE INTENSITY AROUND
- 90-95 KNOTS IS FORECAST FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS OUT, AS COMPETING
- ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL OFFSET ONE ANOTHER. A WEAKENING OF THE
- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND IN INCREASE IN SSTS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
- SHOULD FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP THROUGH TAU 96. RAPID
- WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM WILL FACE RAPIDLY
- INCREASING SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SSTS
- AS IT SHIFTS QUICKLY POLEWARD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
- THROUGH TAU 96, WITH 100NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96.
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 72 BUT IS
- RELATIVELY MINOR UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. BY TAU 120, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
- INCREASES MARGINALLY TO ABOUT 115NM, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY
- INCREASES SHARPLY TO 215NM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SITUATED ON THE
- NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 96, WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE. AFTER THIS POINT, THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES IN TOWARDS
- THE CONSENSUS MEAN, GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODELS, WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE
- GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR-TERM, AS ALL MODELS INDICATE A SHARP WEAKENING
- FROM TAU 00, WHILE THE JTWC FORECAST INCREASES THE INTENSITY. BY
- TAU 48, THE JTWC FORECAST REJOINS THE HAFS-A FORECAST AND REMAINS
- CONSISTENT WITH THE HAFS-A AND CONSENSUS MEAN, ON THE HIGHER END OF
- THE GUIDANCE, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2025-2-5 15:28
发表于 2025-2-5 19:35
