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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-30 04:20 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 291341
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20242025
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)
2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
24H: 2025/03/30 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
36H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0
60H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
72H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 0
120H: 2025/04/03 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-
TROPICAL SYSTEM COURTNEY FORMED IN THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY SINCE MARCH 22ND AND WAS NAMED BY THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ON TUESDAY MARCH 25TH. THE SYSTEM HAS SINCE
BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
WHILE MOVING WESTWARDS, REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY
MARCH 27TH, THEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY MARCH 28TH AT
12UTC.
THIS SATURDAY, AS IT KEPT MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, IT
APPROACHED THE 90TH MERIDIAN, WHICH IT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING, THUS
ENTERING THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. LA REUNION RSMC IS NOW
TAKING OVER FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BOM FOR OPERATIONAL MONITORING OF
COURTNEY.
COURTNEY'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS NEAR 6.0 THIS MORNING, CLIMBING BETWEEN
6.5 AND 7.0 THIS AFTERNOON. THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS THUS ESTIMATED AT
7.0- A 12UTC, BEARING IN MIND THAT THE METEOSAT PARALLAX EFFECT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATION. SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM
AT 0442Z, GCOMW AT 0730Z, F18 AT 1008Z) HAVE SHOWN A VERY SOLID AND
RATHER COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THESE ELEMENTS LEAD US TO ESTIMATE
COURTNEY'S INTENSITY AT 120 KT, PLACING IT AT VITC STAGE, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE OBJECTIVE ADT/AIDT ESTIMATES OF 130 KT (1MIN WINDS). AT 12UTC,
THE CYCLONE'S CENTER WAS STILL AT 90.2E. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH
MERIDIAN BETWEEN 13 AND 14UTC.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DUE TO A RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST, COURTNEY HAS BEGUN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN THIS SATURDAY EVENING. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN
CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE
DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY,
COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY INTENSE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AHEAD OF A DISTANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, COMBINED WITH GOOD OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT
SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-3-29 08:56
