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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151741
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.
The list of names for 2024 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Aletta a-LET-ah Miriam MEER-ee-uhm
Bud buhd Norman NOR-muhn
Carlotta kar-LOT-uh Olivia oh-LEEV-ee-uh
Daniel DAN-yuhl Paul pall
Emilia eh-MILL-ya Rosa ROH-zuh
Fabio FAH-bee-o Sergio SIR-gee-oh
Gilma GIL-mah Tara TAIR-uh
Hector HEHK-tor Vicente vee-CEN-tay
Ileana ill-ay-AH-nah Willa WIH-lah
John jahn Xavier ZAY-vee-ur
Kristy KRIS-tee Yolanda yo-LAHN-da
Lane layne Zeke zeek
A full list of eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone names
and pronunciations can be found at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products
can be found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml,
while more information about NHC graphical products can be
found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml. New and
updated products for the 2024 season can be found at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.pdf
NHC is now providing Spanish language text products to include all
Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical
Cyclone Update, and Key Messages for the eastern Pacific basin.
These products will use AI techniques tested in 2023. Links to
Spanish-language advisory products will be available
on hurricanes.gov. Information on headers for Spanish language
products can be found in the 2024 new and updated products for the
2024 season document at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.pdf
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available
via Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information
about our eastern Pacific Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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楼主: 红豆棒冰冰
发表于 2024-5-16 04:05
