‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 170031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 71.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED,
WITH A BETTER-DEFINED EYE. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS DEFINES A T OF
5.5, GIVING MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 90KT. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS,
BHEKI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, WITH A COLD CONVECTIVE RING.
BHEKI THUS REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN IS GENERATING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, FORCING BHEKI ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. BHEKI SHOULD THEN
SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN ON MONDAY, DRIVEN BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANGES
THEREAFTER, AS THIS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES LESS PRESENT OVER THE
DIFFERENT ANALYSIS TIME, AND BHEKI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS A STRONG
DISPERSION FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS ON THE SYSTEM'S TURN AND SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. A TREND TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK CONTINUES
TO EMERGE, IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST OF THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODEL. THE PATH FORECAST BY RSMC FOLLOWS THIS TREND, LEADING TO A
SCENARIO THAT WOULD HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES, IN
A PHASE OF WEAKENING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITH LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI IS CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK LATE ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD THUS MAINTAIN
ITS STATUS AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH
COOLER WATERS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT
LETTING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING AREA, THIS CONTEXT COULD LEAD
TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BHEKI
WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM UNTIL TUESDAY,
WHEN IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS, BECOMING A DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- A DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF RAIN OR WIND.
- A CYCLONIC SWELL OF 4 TO 6M IS EXPECTED TO REACH RODRIGUES FROM
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND :
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING, ALLOWING IT TO TRANSITION TO THE STAGE
OF A CLOSING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A DETERIORATION IN SEA STATE AND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=

觀雲趣

MIMC-TC 反演

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 170004
A. HURRICANE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 15.45S
D. 71.11E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/2016Z  15.20S  71.38E  GPMI

   LINDGREN


TXXS26 KNES 170013
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  16/2330Z
C.  15.5S
D.  71.2E
E.  ONE/MET-9
F.  T5.5/5.5
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT
OF 5.5 AFTER ADDING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...BERTALAN

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：董林  2024 年 11 月 17 日 10 时

“萨拉”向偏西方向移动

时       间：17日08时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“萨拉”，SARA

中心位置：北纬16.4度、西经87.1度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：1002百帕

参考位置：美国路易斯安那州新奥尔良南偏东方向约1540公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“萨拉”由9级减弱到8级

预报结论：“萨拉”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月17日08时30分）

“贝基”向西南方向移动

时       间：17日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬15.6度、东经71.0度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）

中心气压：959百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1510公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由11级加强到14级

预报结论：“贝基”将缓慢向西南风方向移动，强度逐渐加强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月17日08时00分）

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 170309
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 17/0230Z
C. 15.62S
D. 70.95E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 50NM IN CDO
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR A RAGGED EYE TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD 5.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   SWANSON

renzhetegong

暂时还不会置换。

nicedavid12138

renzhetegong

清晨（0045Z）SAR扫到C3风力

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 170658
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/3/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/11/18 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/19 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 65

72H: 2024/11/20 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/21 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI HAS KEPT A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN. DVORAK EIR ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS
GIVES A DT OF 5.5. A 0045Z SAR RCM-1 PASS CONFIRMS THE 00UTC ANALYSIS
WITH WINDS NEAR 90 KT (10MIN WINDS). AN ASCAT PASS AT 0357Z HAS
ENABLED US TO UPDATE WIND EXTENSIONS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID INNER CORE. IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, BHEKI'S INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 90 KT AT 06UTC. HOWEVER, THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE RING'S CLOUD
TOPS HAVE COOLED, PROBABLY INDICATING ONGOING INTENSIFICATION.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BY A RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN. BHEKI SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND
BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN ON MONDAY, DRIVEN BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER ON, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES A LOT FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS. THE CEPMMT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLIST FORECASTS
INCREASINGLY FAVORS A MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK, PASSING CLOSER
TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THIS
TREND, ALTHOUGH REMAINING SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND STILL SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING ITS PEAK BY THIS
SUNDAY EVENING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, AS A WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT
SETS IN, ALLOWING DRY SURROUNDING AIR TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM'S CORE, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. BHEKI WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL TUESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO RODRIGUES AND A FILLING
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND REUNION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 METERS FROM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY.

MAURITIUS AND REUNION :
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY IMPACTS.=

renzhetegong

TXXS26 KNES 170559
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  17/0530Z
C.  16.1S
D.  70.6E
E.  ONE/MET-9
F.  T6.0/6.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B BUT EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF
6.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE 5.5 BASED
ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...COVERDALE

---

TPXS10 PGTW 170611
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 17/0530Z
C. 15.96S
D. 70.60E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 59NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0 AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD 5.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   SWANSON