马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 101240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 55.7 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, WITH A CLEARLY VISIBLE SPIRAL BAND STRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA,
DIKELEDI IS MAINTAINED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WE'RE SEEING A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
DIKELEDI IS MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAND OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ANTSIRANANA ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS IT EXITS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, DISPERSION INCREASES SHARPLY BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS. INDEED, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND STEER
ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THIS WEAKNESS, THE TRACKS WILL REMAIN WESTWARD FOR LONGER
(AS GFS SCENARIO), WHILE SOME SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (AS
IFS). HOWEVER, ALL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK FROM RUN TO RUN. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, AND CURRENTLY FOLLOWS THE
AIFS GUIDANCE, OFFERING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. DIKELEDI IS
CURRENTLY IN GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS, A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF SHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SHEAR) AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE GOOD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EVEN IF THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED SCENARIO. THE
OVERLAND PASSAGE OF THE GRANDE TERRE WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS IT IS SO SMALL. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BACK ABOVE
THE SEA, AS IT EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THIS
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK (IF IT DIVES
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARDS, THE MALAGASY COAST COULD STRONGLY PREVENT
INTENSIFICATION). THE RSMC FORECAST CALLS FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON SATURDAY EVENING NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY HEAVY SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OVER ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100
MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED MOUNTAIN RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 150MM IN 12HRS POSSIBLE.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 101840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 54.1 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH
THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR SPREADING CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE THE EYE MEAN THAT
THE EYE PATTERN IS NOT YET CLEAR IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MAINLY BASED ON MET/PT AND ESTIMATED AT 4.5-,
SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF 65 KT. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT RELIABLE OBJECTIVE
DATA, THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DIKELEDI IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA ON SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THEREAFTER, AS IT EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT CURVES TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS
INCREASES SHARPLY FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WITH A MORE OR
LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE OR LESS
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE), DEPENDING ON THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A
TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE MAINLY
BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS, WHICH SEEM TO BETTER HANDLE THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
DIKELEDI IS CURRENTLY UNDER OVERALL GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
WITH VERY WARM WATERS, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT A RELATIVE
INFLUENCE OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR (BUT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, WHICH REDUCES ITS DISRUPTING EFFECTS).
THESE GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE, AND AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EVEN IF THIS
IS NOT THE PREFERRED SCENARIO. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT, INCREASING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR,
AND THE PASSAGE OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK. THE RSMC
FORECAST CALLS FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
AT 120 HOURS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OVER ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100
MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12HRS POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4M POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
UP TO 100 MM LOCALLY, AND 150 MM OVER HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING
NIGHT.
- WAVES NEAR 4M POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNON AND TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 54.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 54.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 12.7S 51.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.8S 49.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 14.3S 45.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 16.4S 42.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 19.5S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.1S 42.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.5E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 102100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 54.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKLEDI) HAS STABILIZED AT NEAR 55KTS FOR TWO
    
19. CONSECUTIVE CYCLES WITH NEARLY UNANIMOUS AGENCY FIXES COMING IN AT
    
20. T3.5. A MICROWAVE EYE IS SHOWING ON A 101750Z AMSU 89V. ANIMATED
    
21. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT REMAINS A
    
22. LOPSIDED SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO CONGEAL, WITH THE DEEPEST
    
23. CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER
    
24. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THERE IS
    
25. STILL A MEAN OF NEARLY 25KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVERAGED THROUGH
    
26. THE COLUMN. TOTAL PRECIPTIBLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM THE GRADIENT
    
27. LEVEL MOISTURE IS COCOONED FROM THE DRIER SEASONAL SOUTHEASTERLIES
    
28. TO ITS SOUTHWEST. 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
    
29. FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT VALUES EXIST ALONG
    
30. TRACK. THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN RIDGE HAS BEEN STEERING THE SYSTEM
    
31. STEADILY WNW AT 15 KNOTS.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A PARTIAL 101435Z RCM PASS AIDED THE
    
34. NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS AND THE OTHER QUADRANTS WERE
    
35. ESTIMATED FROM THAT.
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SUBTROPICAL
    
38. RIDGE.
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
44.    FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 101500Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
49.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL TRACK STEADILY ALONG UNTIL IT CLIPS
    
63. THE NORTHERNMOST PROVINCE OF MADAGASCAR. GUIDANCE HAS FOCUSED A
    
64. LITTLE FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING THE
    
65. CERTAINTY OF A LAND STRIKE. ONCE CLEARING MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM
    
66. WILL CLEAR BEYOND THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
    
67. GRADUALLY BEND POLEWARD. THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM
    
68. GRAZES COASTAL MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS UNRESOLVED, BUT THE PACK OF
    
69. GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS, CONTINUES TO POINT THE STORM STRAIT DOWN
    
70. THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 07S WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED
    
71. IN DEEP MOISTURE THROUGHOUT ITS TRANSIT AND AS IT ARCS OVER TOWARD
    
72. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL NEAR
    
73. 14JAN1800Z, A POLEWARD TUG ON THE OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH WARMER WATERS
    
74. IN THE CHANNEL WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO THE INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM WILL
    
75. BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 25TH LATITUDE.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE
    
78. STORM'S LIFE CYCLE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT OUT OF THE
    
79. QUESTION YET, BUT ONLY COAMPS-TC SUPPORTS IT. HAFS ACTUALLY STAYS
    
80. BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT INTO THE
    
81. CHANNEL, AND ALTHOUGH IT SPREADS IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS GOOD
    
82. CONSENSUS THAT THE STORM STAYS IN THE CHANNEL AND DOES NOT GRAZE THE
    
83. COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
89.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
90. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 110136
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED RATHER
HESITANT, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR,
TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VORTEX. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (1755Z AMSU-B, 1900Z GPM-GMI, 2130Z AMSR2) CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY INTENSE BUT PARTIAL CONVECTIVE CORE WITH AN
EYEWALL WRAPPING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF A TURN, BUT SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WIND
SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 65 KT,
BUT THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, AS IT
EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY, WITH
A MORE OR LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE
OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE),
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS
IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE MAINLY BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND TO
THE CORE'S IMPERFECT STRUCTURE. BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED, INCREASING
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AND THE PASSAGE OVER MALAGASY LANDS, WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A DEGREE THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ONCE BACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY. AS IT APPROACHES THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, LAND INTERACTION COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT
INTENSITY. LATER ON, IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
COULD THUS BE APPROACHED OR REACHED, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SO FAR
AWAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM THIS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, SPREADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8 METERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTRY,
LOCALY 1M TO 1M50 ON THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF REGION DIANA.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE (NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE) FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12H POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
LOCALLY UP TO 100 MM IN 24H, AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ON MONDAY. LOCALLY 100-200 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS LIKELY FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 11 日 10 时

“迪克莱迪”向西偏北方向移动

时       间：11日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬12.8度、东经52.5度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：983百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加安塔拉哈东北方向约335公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由9级加强到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度略有加强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月11日08时00分）

“皮塔”向偏北方向移动

时       间：11日08时（北京时）

海       域：南太平洋

命       名：“皮塔”，PITA

中心位置：南纬20.2度、西经167.2度

强度等级：一级热带气旋

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：996百帕

参考位置：汤加努库阿洛法偏东方向约840公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“皮塔”强度维持不变

预报结论：“皮塔”将原地少动，强度变化不大。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月11日08时00分）

觀雲趣

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 110718
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 51.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE DIKELEDI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY, BUT THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG,
TRANSPORTING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VORTEX ON A FAIRLY REGULAR
BASIS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE PICTURE (F16 FROM 0255Z) CONFIRMS THAT
THE EYE WALL HAS CONSOLIDATED, BUT IS STILL NOT TOTALLY CLOSED ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE DUE TO SHEAR. THE SAR AT 0213Z MEASURES AN AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 68KT, WHEREAS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE OF THE ORDER OF
60KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 65 KT, BUT THIS ESTIMATE
REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, AS IT
EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY, WITH
A MORE OR LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE
OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE),
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS
IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE MAINLY BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND TO
THE CORE'S IMPERFECT STRUCTURE. BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED, INCREASING
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AND THE PASSAGE OVER MALAGASY LANDS, WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A DEGREE THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ONCE BACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY. AS IT APPROACHES THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, LAND INTERACTION COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT
INTENSITY. LATER ON, IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
COULD THUS BE APPROACHED OR REACHED, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SO FAR
AWAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM THIS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, SPREADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8 METERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTRY,
LOCALY 1M TO 1M50 ON THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF REGION DIANA.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE (NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE) FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12H POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
LOCALLY UP TO 100 MM IN 24H, AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ON MONDAY. LOCALLY 100-200 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS LIKELY FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 51.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 51.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.9S 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 14.1S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 16.0S 41.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 18.4S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.3S 41.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.1S 43.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 51.0E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
441 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 110900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.7S 51.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 441 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
    
13. MADAGASCAR
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DIMPLE-LIKE
    
19. FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS OBSCURING THE CENTER
    
20. OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S. THE DIMPLING FEATURE INDICATING A
    
21. FORMATIVE EYE HIGHLIGHTS THE INTENSIFICATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
    
22. THE LAST 12 HOURS. AN 110213Z RCM-3 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR)
    
23. PRODUCT REVEALS WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
    
24. PERIPHERY BETWEEN 75-77KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
25. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL
    
26. INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
27. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
    
32. SOUTHWEST
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 110530Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 110300Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 0630Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 0630Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD PASSING
    
60. OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER
    
61. PASSING BACK OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE CURVE OF
    
62. A STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
    
63. TRACK THROUGH THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AT TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
    
64. SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE REMAINING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
    
65. STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL,
    
66. WHICH WILL DISRUPT INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND TOPOGRAPHIC
    
67. INTERACTION. HIGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
    
68. TAU 48, AND TC 07S WILL PEAK AT AN INTENSITY OF 80KTS BY TAU 80.
    
69. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 20KTS ONCE AGAIN BY TAU 60, DUE
    
70. TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
    
71. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN.
    
72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
73. PERIOD.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MOSTLY GOOD
    
76. AGREEMENT REGARDING EARLY TRACK FORECAST, BUT THE MID- TO LATE-
    
77. FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES LARGELY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. THE STR IN
    
78. THE GFS GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN
    
79. TAU 48-108, ULTIMATELY INFLUENCING THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND CAUSING
    
80. WEAKENING BEFORE TRACKING BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ECMWF
    
81. KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
    
82. UNTIL TAU 72 BEFORE MEETING HIGH SHEAR IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
    
83. CHANNEL. THE SMALL VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH
    
84. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID- TO LATE-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
85. 
    
86. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
87.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
89.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
91. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 11 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”向偏西方向移动

时       间：11日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬12.7度、东经51.5度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：984百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加昂布尔角东偏南方向约255公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由10级加强到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月11日14时00分）