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WTIO30 FMEE 031916
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (FAIDA)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 51.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 165
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 215 NW: 120
24H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
60H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 150
72H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 155
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 140
120H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS COMPLETELY SEPARATED
FROM THE CONVECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
STRESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
THE SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1438Z CONFIRMS THIS, PRESENTING A
FULLY EXPOSED VORTEX ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER,
ALREADY POSITIONED ON THE COAST OF TOLIARA PROVINCE, AT A DISTANCE OF
AROUND 100MN. THESE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, COUPLED WITH ASCAT-C DATA
FROM 0622Z SHOWING ONLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, POINT TO A WEAKENED SYSTEM PREY TO PERSISTENT ADVERSE
SHEAR FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, FAIDA IS
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR 30KT, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS AT THE TIME OF THE ANALYSIS
TIME. IN ADDITION, THE SSMIS-F17 PASS ENABLED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO
BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN ESTIMATED DURING THE DAY. THE BESTRACK
HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
FAIDA SEEMS TO HAVE PLUNGED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OF THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE BELT TO THE SOUTH IS
SET TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW, CAUSING THE METEOR TO RISE. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER LANDING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT IN THE SAME AREA AND BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
FACT, THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL, AND A CHRONOLOGICAL DIFFERENCE OF +/- 3 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
THIS DISPERSION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, FIRST OVER MADAGASCAR AND
THEN AS THE VORTEX EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK
FORECAST, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TENDING TO STAY A LITTLE MORE ON LAND.
THE 24 HOURS OF TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR COULD BE THE DEATH KNELL FOR
A SYSTEM THAT WAS FAIRLY WEAK FROM THE START. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT
THE OPTION CHOSEN BY THE REUNION RSMC. A PROBABLE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL OFF THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA, FOLLOWED BY
A NEW LANDFALL WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND IS FORESEEN.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FAIDA REMAINS SUBJECT TO DIFFICULT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, INJECTING DRY AIR ABOVE THE DEPRESSION MINIMUM. IN THIS
CONTEXT, REGULAR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS DIFFICULT UNTIL LANDFALL, AS
FORECAST AT THE OUTSET. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL BE TEMPORARILY LOCALIZED BY ACCELERATION ON THE COAST, AS
MODELED BY SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENT
FORECAST ASSUMES A LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA
(MADAGASCAR) AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH MEANS THAT
THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. WHEN IT ARRIVES IN MADAGASCAR, IN A WEAKENED STATE, IT
COULD PERICLIZE SLOWLY OVER A PERIOD OF MORE THAN 24 HOURS, WHICH IS
NOT THE OPTION ADOPTED FOR THE TIME BEING. IN FACT, THE PRESENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE SHOULD BE REACHED BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY OVER TOAMASINA PROVINCE DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, CLOSE TO AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- HEAVY RAINFALLS ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA
AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN CONNECTION WITH
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MONSOON FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING.=
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-2-3 20:04
发表于 2025-2-3 22:20
