中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z预报东太热带系统将在3天内发展成旋

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly to the west-northwest or west, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集对东太反应较弱

renzhetegong

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报东太热带系统将在3天内发展成旋

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z预报东太热带系统将在4天内发展成旋

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure located
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico
is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development is possible during the next day or so while the
low moves little. By this weekend, the system is forecast to merge
with another disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集对东太反应较弱

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z大幅调弱东太系统，很可能无法成旋

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves
little. By this weekend, the low is forecast to merge with another
system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Papin