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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-11-17 21:05 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 171232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/3/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)
2.A POSITION 2024/11/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
24H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
36H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55
48H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0
60H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
72H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 0
120H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI HAS KEPT A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN. DVORAK EIR ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS
GIVES A DT OF 5.5. A 0045Z SAR RCM-1 PASS CONFIRMS THE 00UTC ANALYSIS
WITH WINDS NEAR 90 KT (10MIN WINDS). AN ASCAT PASS AT 0357Z HAS
ENABLED US TO UPDATE WIND EXTENSIONS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID INNER CORE. IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, BHEKI'S INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 90 KT AT 06UTC. HOWEVER, THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE RING'S CLOUD
TOPS HAVE COOLED, PROBABLY INDICATING ONGOING INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
BHEKI SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, DRIVEN BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES A LOT
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLIST
FORECASTS INCREASINGLY FAVOR A TRACK PASSING CLOSER TO THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS. THE RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THIS, ALTHOUGH REMAINING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BHEKI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND STILL SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD THEREFORE AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, AS A WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SETS IN, ALLOWING
DRY SURROUNDING AIR TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM'S CORE, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED. BHEKI WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM UNTIL TUESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT
PASSES CLOSE TO RODRIGUES AND A FILLING DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSER
TO MAURITIUS AND REUNION.
EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 METERS FROM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY.
MAURITIUS AND REUNION :
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY IMPACTS.=
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发表于 2024-11-17 16:02
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