马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111345
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 50.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI HAS ADOPTED AN
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, WITH AN ESTIMATED DVORAK INTENSITY OF 5.0.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST AMSU-C MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0555Z SHOWS A VERY
POORLY DEFINED EYE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS STILL VERY PRESENT.
MOREOVER, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DO NOT ESTIMATE AN AVERAGE WIND ABOVE
60KT. THE CHOSEN INTENSITY IS THEREFORE 70KT.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS SPEED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, AS IT EXITS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT CURVES TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE
TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN
MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH A MORE OR LESS
RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE OR LESS CLOSE TO
THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE), DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL
OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE GREATER OR LESSER EFFECT OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFS, AROME AND IFS MODELS.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY MORNING, SHOULD DECREASE AS IT PASSES OVER THE MALAGASY
LANDS, WHICH WILL WEAKEN IT. ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD
CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST ON SUNDAY, THEN MUCH MORE
RAPIDLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN THE EVENT OF TOO STRONG AN APPROACH
TO THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH
THE LAND COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT INTENSITY. IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD THEN BE APPROACHED OR REACHED, EVEN IF
FORECASTING ON THESE DISTANT HORIZONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS THIS SATURDAY ON THE EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE, EXTENDING IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING NEAR THE LANDFALL
AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTSIRANANA).
GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND
NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100 MM, LOCALLY
200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPOSED
MOUNTAINOUS RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS, LOCALLY VERY HEAVY FROM SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL EVENING. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST.
NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, THEY MAY REACH 6 TO 9 METERS,
LOCALLY 10M,
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
LOCALLY 1M TO 1M50 OVER THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF THE DIANA REGION.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M POSSIBLE ON THE WEST COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE
(NEAR CAP SAINT-ANDRE) BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING
SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.

COMOROS:
- HEAVY RAINS ON SUNDAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL CLOSE
TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.

renzhetegong

SSMIS扫描显示，07S登陆马达加斯加北部之前构建了微波风眼

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK,
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AT AROUND 1630 UTC
BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF ANTSIRANANA AND VOHEMAR. IT WAS THEN AT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH WINDS OF 70KT. ON LANDING, DIKELEDI LOST
INTENSITY AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF
60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIKELEDI CONTINUED ITS GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL IT
TOUCHED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR THIS EVENING. THEN, WITH A
WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TILT ITS TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH-WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS AS IT EXITS THE
SEA FROM DIKELIDI, THEN IT INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY WITH A MORE
OR LESS RAPID TURN AND MORE OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE
(NAMPULA PROVINCE), DEPENDING ON THE GREATER OR LESSER EFFECT OF A
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, AND IS CLOSER TO THE AROME
SCENARIO, WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL (NOTE
THAT THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW ALSO TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL AND NO LONGER TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH
REINFORCES OUR FORECAST).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
DIKELEDI WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE
TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. ON REACHING THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH VERY WARM WATERS AND
A HUMID ENVIRONMENT, ENABLING IT TO RESTRUCTURE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER,
WIND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION A LITTLE
TOMORROW, BEFORE DIKELEDI RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT EASES OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. INDEED, WITH A
CENTRAL TRACK LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THERE ARE FEW BRAKES
ON DIKELEDI'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN
COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS
INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- STORM-FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY OVER THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA,
GRADUALLY EVACUATING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNDERWAY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE
AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 100 MM,
LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS, LOCALLY VERY HEAVY. WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST DIMINISHING RAPIDLY.
- WAVES OF 4 METRES POSSIBLE ON THE WEST COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE
(NEAR CAP SAINT-ANDRE) BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MAYOTTE:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL
BANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAINS ON SUNDAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOSE TO 100 MM
IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON THE EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 49.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 49.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.6S 46.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 14.3S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.3S 43.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 16.3S 42.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 19.5S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 23.7S 42.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 28.3S 45.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 48.4E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 112100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.9S 49.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
    
13. MADAGASCAR
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
    
20. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOLLOWING A SHORT DISRUPTION DUE TO
    
21. PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
22. IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
    
23. POSITION ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND DEMS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
    
24. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
    
25. AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
26. LISTED BELOW.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
    
31. 
    
32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
33.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
34.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
35.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
36.    CIMSS D-MINT: 59 KTS AT 111528Z
    
37.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 73 KTS AT 111800Z
    
38. 
    
39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
40.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
41.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
42.    OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
    
43. 
    
44. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
45.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
46.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
47.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
48. 
    
49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
50. 
    
51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED
    
52. FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING FOR EACH TAU DUE TO ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE
    
53. ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE PEAK INTENSITY
    
54. HAS INCREASED FROM 80 KNOTS IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING TO 105 KNOTS IN
    
55. THE CURRENT WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PERIPHERAL
    
58. FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
    
59. FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    
60. WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT,
    
61. GRADUALLY ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE, AND INDUCE A BREAK OVER THE
    
62. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 07S WILL TURN POLEWARD TOWARD THE BREAK IN
    
63. THE RIDGE BY TAU 36 AND CONTINUE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
    
64. THEREAFTER. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TO
    
65. INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, INDUCING THE
    
66. FIRST STAGE OF A LIKELY PROLONGED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLOW
    
67. INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE IN THE NEAR TERM DESPITE HIGH SEA
    
68. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM IS
    
69. POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
    
70. PERSISTENT, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24,
    
71. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    
72. UNDER THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS AND BENEFITS FROM LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
73. SHEAR, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
    
74. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
    
75. OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INDUCE WEAKENING IN
    
76. THE LATER TAUS.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, INCLUDING A
    
80. POLEWARD TURN AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND PASSAGE OVER THE
    
81. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS BRACKETED ON THE WEST
    
82. BY THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ON THE
    
83. RIGHT BY THE GALWEM SOLUTION. THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONSENSUS MODEL
    
84. AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRACKS IS FAIRLY EVEN, REFLECTING SLIGHT
    
85. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION OF THE EXPECTED POLEWARD
    
86. TURN BUT A CONSISTENT OVERALL PICTURE. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
    
87. FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING AND LIES
    
88. JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPREAD IS
    
89. EVIDENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM
    
90. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE GFS AND SHIPS FORECASTS TO STEADY TO
    
91. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATEST HAFS AND HWRF RUNS. THE CURRENT
    
92. FORECAST ALIGNS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS GIVEN ANTICIPATED
    
93. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE
    
94. MESOSCALE MODELS. THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY PEAK ABOVE 105 KNOTS IN
    
95. THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IF CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE,
    
96. WARRANTING FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY IN
    
97. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
    
98. 
    
99. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
100.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
104. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 120014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI LANDED ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR AT AROUND 1630 UTC BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF ANTSIRANANA AND
VOHEMAR, AND EMERGED CLOSE TO NOSY-BE A FEW HOURS LATER. THE PASSAGE
OVER THE MALAGASY LANDMASS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ITS INTENSITY AND
DAMAGED ITS CONFIGURATION. IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM WITH WINDS OF 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO GRADUALLY TILT ITS
TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING
ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK
COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON
MONDAY, OR PASS MUCH FURTHER INTO THE CENTER THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, MOVING CLOSER TO THE AROME
SCENARIO WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE OVER MADAGASCAR. NOW BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CIRCULATING IN VERY WARM WATERS AND A
HUMID ENVIRONMENT, ENABLING IT TO RESTRUCTURE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, THE
WIND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION A LITTLE THIS
MORNING, BUT DIKELEDI WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. IN
FACT, WITH A CENTRAL TRACK LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THERE
ARE FEW OBSTACLES TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF DIKELEDI UP TO THE STAGE
OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS
INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN
ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE
PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE STILL IN PROGRESS OVER WESTERN ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE,
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE
ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL THIS EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION
NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNDERWAY OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100MM POSSIBLE BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY.
HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE POSSIBLE TODAY.
100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

MAYOTTE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL BANDS.
TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN TODAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H
LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. REDUCED RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 12 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”向西偏南方向移动

时       间：12日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬13.2度、东经48.1度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：998百帕

参考位置：科摩罗群岛东偏南方向约550公里的洋面上

变化过程：“迪克莱迪”已于今日凌晨登陆马达加斯加东北部（12级，相当于我国的台风级），随后进入莫桑比克海峡。过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由12级减弱到9级。

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月12日08时00分）

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 120317

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 13.79S

D. 46.54E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT. INTENSITY
ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   11/2212Z  13.88S  47.57E  AMS2


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

TXXS26 KNES 120018
TCSSIO

A.  07S (DIKELEDI)

B.  11/2330Z

C.  13.2S

D.  47.7E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T4.0/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
4.0 BASED ON A STEADY TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...COVERDALE

=

Leonardo

觀雲趣

登陸前有C2頂風力