科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第14号“考特尼”(27U/27S.Courtney) - 西行发展，风眼开出，快速爆发超预期 - MFR:110KT JTWC:130KT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-3-30 14:07

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-30 15:35 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 300625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/14/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 88.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 75

60H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 55

72H: 2025/04/02 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY HAS LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION IN FAVOR
OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONFIGURATION. THE F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM 0030Z STILL SHOWS A FIRM EYE VISIBLE AT 89 GHZ WITH CONVECTION
REJECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ASCAT PASS AT
0311Z DOES NOT ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE WIND STRENGTH NEAR THE CENTER.IN
LINE WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWING A RAPID WEAKENING OF
MAXIMUM WINDS, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90KT, MAINTAINING
COURTNEY AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EXTREMIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR, COURTNEY'S TRACK CURVES SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY,
ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE
MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY, COURTNEY
SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT 700HPA,
THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A VERY WIDE
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY THROUGH INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH, INJECTING
DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER WATERS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
26°C. COURTNEY SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING THIS
SUNDAY. COURTNEY SHOULD THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE MONDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO
A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE DRY AIR WILL ENTER HARD ABOVE THE
CENTER WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-3-30 15:45

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-30 17:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 88.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.9S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.5S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 88.2E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 88.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 727 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WITH A FILLED EYE AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER THE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CONVECTION IS NOW ALSO BECOMING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LLCC AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 27S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
ONLY WORSEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS INCLUDE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN
THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 300615Z
CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 300615Z
CIMSS AIDT: 90 KTS AT 300615Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE VORTEX WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD, AS THE STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 27S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
TO AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 45 KTS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS SUB 25 C
WATERS, SHEAR RAISES TO ABOVE 40 KTS, AND DRY AIR DECAPITATES THE
VORTEX. AFTER TAU 36, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL GREATLY INCREASE DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE VORTEX RELATIVE TO THE JET, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72, WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35 KTS. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS ALSO
LIKELY TO COMPLETE NEAR THE SAME TIME AS DISSIPATION AND THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE JET AND THE VORTEX BECOMES VERY
SHALLOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 27S WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
48 AND A 130 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MODELS DEPICTING RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36 AND A MORE GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-3-30 16:25

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-31 08:30 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 03 月 30 日 18 时
“考特尼”向偏南方向移动

时    间：30日14时（北京时）

海    域：南印度洋

命    名：“考特尼”，COURTNEY

中心位置：南纬21.1度、东经88.3度

强度等级：强热带气旋

最大风力：16级（52米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：0百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3200公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“考特尼”由17级以上减弱到16级

预报结论：“考特尼”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月30日14时00分）

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 03 月 30 日 18 时
“考特尼”向偏南方向移动

时    间：30日14时（北京时）

海    域：南印度洋

命    名：“考特尼”，COURTNEY

中心位置：南纬21.1度、东经88.3度

强度等级：强热带气旋

最大风力：16级（52米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：950百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3200公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“考特尼”由17级以上减弱到16级

预报结论：“考特尼”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月30日14时00分）

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-3-30 20:07

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-31 04:40 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 301229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/14/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 88.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110

48H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110

60H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 325 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY HAS REMAINED IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CONFIGURATION, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. THE
0825Z GCOM-W MICROWAVE IMAGE NO LONGER SHOWS A FIRM RING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH NOW ONLY CONCERNS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY, IN
LINE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, WHICH SHOW A
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75KT,
DOWNGRADING COURTNEY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR, COURTNEY'S TRACK CURVES SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY,
ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE
MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY, COURTNEY
SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT 700HPA,
THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A VERY WIDE
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPS
INCREASING SHARPLY THROUGH INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH,
INJECTING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER WATERS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26°C. COURTNEY SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE ITS
RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO
A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE DRY AIR WILL ENTER HARD ABOVE THE
CENTER WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-3-31 04:40

WTIO30 FMEE 301843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 87.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85

48H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO OFFSET DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN A SHEARED PATTERN YIELDS A DT
OF 3.5, AS THE CENTER IS STILL UNDER THE EDGE OF THE CDO. A 1246Z SAR
RCM-1 PASS SUGGESTS WINDS NEAR 70-75 KT, WHILE A 1230Z SMAP PASS
INDICATES WINDS OF ONLY 65 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS AT 1630Z ALSO
SUGGESTS WINDS STILL REACHING AT LEAST 60 KT IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE LATEST CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MOSTLY RANGE
FROM 60 TO 70 KT. COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 65
KT AT 18UTC, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS INPUTS.

COURTNEY'S TRACK IS CURVING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST/NORTH-EAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO
THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A
RATHER HIGH DISPERSION AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASINGLY HIGH NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING IT
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS,
IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS
TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO
EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH A
CONVECTION-FREE VORTEX. DRY AIR WILL MASSIVELY SETTLE OVER THE
SYSTEM, PREVENTING ANY FURTHER REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-3-31 04:40

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 87.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.0S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 88.0E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
813 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 302001
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.7S 87.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 813 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HEAVILY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (COURTNEY) AS IT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A STR TO THE EAST AND BEGINNING TO
TRANSIT SOUTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS CURRENTLY
STILL PARTIALLY OBSCURED, BUT THE DRAMATICALLY INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PUSHING THE CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS, COOL (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ERODE THE
VORTEX OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND
HELPS DISTRIBUTE THE CONVECTION POLEWARD AND EASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC VISIBLE IN THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DECREASING AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 301715Z
CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 301815Z
CIMSS AIDT: 62 KTS AT 301815Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 64 KTS AT 301249Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 301815Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 25-30 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN
QUICKER WEAKENING AND TRUNCATION OF THE FORECAST TO 48 HOURS.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A STR LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER
65 KTS, LEADING TO COMPLETE DECAPITATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
SHALLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME, TC COURTNEY WILL
APPROACH COOLER WATERS, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 C.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. AROUND THAT TIME, REMNANTS OF TC 27S WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY A STRONG, LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REMAINING CIRCULATION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 55 NM AT TAU 24,
INCREASING TO 185 NM BY TAU 48. NAVGEM AND DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE
ARE THE OUTLIERS, WITH THE FORMER PREDICTING SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
WHILE THE LATTER IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
REFLECTING THE DOMINANT STEERING BY THE STR TO THE EAST AND TAKING THE
SYSTEM ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATING STEADY WEAKENING,
REFLECTING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. STORM-CENTERED CROSS SECTIONS FROM
BOTH HAFS AND DETERMINISTIC GFS BOTH AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS RESULT, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO HAFS DISSIPATION TIMELINE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-3-31 08:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-31 09:20 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 310040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 88.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85

48H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/03 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED BY A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER IS NOW OUTSIDE THE
CONVECTIVE MASS, WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 15-20 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTH-EAST OF THE LLCC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED PATTERN
THUS YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE 1908Z AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THAT THE
INNER CORE HAS BROADENED. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE RECENT SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KT AT 00UTC, DOWNGRADING
COURTNEY TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

COURTNEY'S TRACK IS CURVING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST/NORTH-EAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWN TO THE
MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A
RATHER HIGH DISPERSION AMONG AVAILABLE MODELS.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASINGLY HIGH NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING IT
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS,
IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY SHOULD LOSE SOME
OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH A CONVECTION-FREE VORTEX. DRY
AIR WILL MASSIVELY SETTLE OVER THE SYSTEM, PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE
FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-3-31 09:45

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 03 月 31 日 10 时
“考特尼”向偏南方向移动

时    间：31日08时（北京时）

海    域：南印度洋

命    名：“考特尼”，COURTNEY

中心位置：南纬23.2度、东经88.0度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：980百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3170公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“考特尼”由16级减弱到11级

预报结论：“考特尼”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月31日08时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-3-31 14:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-31 14:55 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 310627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 88.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2025/04/02 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/03 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0+

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: COURTNEY'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAIN
SHEARED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DETACHED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ESTIMATED BY CIMSS IS NORTH-WESTERLY FOR 30KT, WHICH IS FULLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE SITUATION THAT CURRENTLY PLACES THE
SYSTEM ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER
WEST. THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION STILL ALLOWS A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, GIVING A DT OF 3.0. DUE TO INERTIA, AND ALSO TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT DATA FROM THE RCM1-VH SAR AT 2326Z AND THE 0342Z ASCAT-C
SWATH, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.0+, CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AT THE UPPER
STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FOR 60KT.

COURTNEY'S TRACK CURVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING
FLOW DROPS BACK INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND THEN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE REMNANT LOW IS
TAKEN UP IN THE TRADE WINDS ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
LAYER. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS INCREASING FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, INDUCING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BEYOND.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A RESULT
OF INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION,
COURTNEY'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT MEANS THAT IT IS CIRCULATING OVER MUCH
COOLER SURFACE WATERS, WITH VIRTUALLY NO OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE FORM OF A
VORTEX DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE PERMANENTLY
OVER THE LLC, WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFYING. GALE-FORCE
WINDS, THEN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, MAY PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.

yhh · 发表于 2025-3-31 16:10

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-31 17:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 88.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.1S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 88.6E.
31MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
854 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 24.0S 88.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 854 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S WITH CONVECTION THAT IS BEING HEAVILY SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, REVEALING THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 310344Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATING
WIND FIELD WITH 55 KNOT BARBS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY,
EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 27S IS IN A HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30-35 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND BORDERLINE (25-26
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FACTORS ARE ONLY OFFSET BY THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE JET. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE WIND AMBIGUITIES IMAGE CORRESPONDING TO THE
MENTIONED ASCAT-C PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C IMAGE AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 302326Z RCM-1 SAR WIND SPEED IMAGE
SHOWED A VMAX OF AROUND 80 KTS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT,
SUPPORTING THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ALL TOO LOW NOW DUE TO THE WEAK CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 310344Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 30-35 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW
FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE DISSIPATION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD,
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, THE VORTEX WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW AND THE STEERING
MECHANISM WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE 27S TO TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NOW FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BEFORE DISSIPATION CAN
OCCUR. THE TRANSITION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO COMPLETE NO LATER
THAN TAU 48, BUT LIKELY EARLIER AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
OVER 50 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF
27S, FURTHER WEAKENING THE FORECAST DUE TO RISING SHEAR, COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AN
INTENSITY OF AROUND 35-40 KTS IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE TIME
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION COMPLETES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE TRACK OF 27S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
TRACKS THE VORTEX FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
DISREGARDING NAVGEM, THERE IS A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48.
THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOUT A 10 KNOT SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS
WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

复制代码

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			立即注册

[值得关注] 科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第14号“考特尼”(27U/27S.Courtney) - 西行发展，风眼开出，快速爆发超预期 - MFR:110KT JTWC:130KT

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

点评

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

本帖子中包含更多资源

浏览过的版块