中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170546
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated near the
low tonight, and recent satellite wind data suggests the center is
embedded in the convection. While environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, some additional
development of this system is possible during the next day or so as
the low drifts slowly. By this weekend, the low is forecast to
interact or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred
miles to the south of southern Mexico during the next day or two.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-5-17 11:42
GFS 18Z大幅调弱东太系统，很可能无法成旋

GFS 00Z仍不支持东太系统明显发展

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集对东太稍有反应

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air,
some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so as the low remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the
low is forecast to interact or merge with another system to its
east, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly
to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of
Mexico by the middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. While environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air,
some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so as the low remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the
low is forecast to interact or merge with another system to its
east, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
to the south of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur as the disturbance moves slowly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

862
ABPZ20 KNHC 172313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development of this system as the low remains nearly stationary
during the next day or so. By late this weekend, the low is forecast
to interact or merge with another system to its east, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue several hundred
miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico in association
with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become
more diffuse than yesterday, and marginal environmental conditions
due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant development.
This system should remain nearly stationary during the next day or
so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is forecast to interact
or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist several hundred miles
to the south of the coast of southern Mexico along a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集对东太反应较弱

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce an
area of showers and thunderstorms. Dry air nearby and marginal
environmental conditions are likely to limit significant
development. This system should remain nearly stationary during the
next day or so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is forecast
to interact or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be
slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Kelly