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总共维持56分钟X+，太持久了！！！

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凌晨两点多AR 3691(3663)又有一次M5.7耀斑并伴有CME，叠加之前AR 3697(3664)的halo CME，预计将在6.1凌晨抵达地球，SWPC暂时预测将有G2级地磁暴

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A long duration X1.4 solar flare was just observed around AR 3697 peaking at 14:37 UTC (May 29). The event is associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 878 km/s. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now just becoming visible in updated imagery and should be mostly directed towards the east. An additional update will be provided should an Earth directed component be associated.


Good afternoon. Solar activity continues at high levels today with AR 3691 (ex 3663) getting into the flare action as well. A few M-Flares including an M5.7 event at 18:41 UTC (May 29) were detected. So far none of those flares appear to be eruptive.
Speaking of eruptive, the long duration X1.4 flare event around AR 3697 (ex 3664) did produce an energetic CME that was directed mostly towards the east and away from Earth. Only a glancing blow at best should be expected within 72 hours. The chances for an Earth directed eruption will increase with each passing day as the active sunspot region turns into a better geoeffective position.


NOAA/SWPC appears to show that the CME associated with the X1.4 solar flare earlier today will pass close enough to Earth to possibly generate moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming beginning May 31st. This will be interesting to see if this unfolds as predicted. Aurora sky watchers should be alert beginning Friday.

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product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2024

             May 30       May 31       Jun 01
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         4.33     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         3.00     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         6.00 (G2)    2.67     
21-00UT       2.00         5.33 (G1)    2.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely
to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME
effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption
of 29 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2024

              May 30  May 31  Jun 01
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 01 Jun primarily due to
the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 29 2024 1437 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2024

              May 30        May 31        Jun 01
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are expected, with a
chance for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts through 01 Jun.

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AR 3691(3663)  M1.09

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    过去一天太阳正面很平静，AR 3691(3663)和AR 3697(3664)似乎都略有减弱。还是看看背面吧。
    在太阳背面中心的位置附近有个巨大的活动区，推测是AR 3679和AR 3683合并或紧贴形成的。不过这个活动区虽然很大，但似乎并不算很活跃。今天凌晨该活跃区可能发生了一次耀斑活动，抛出了一个较强的CME。该活动区预计还有一周转到太阳正面。

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AR 3698  C7.55

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AR 3697(3664)  C9.86

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前两天抛出的CME开始影响地球

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Kp=4.67 G1级小地磁暴