波多黎各东北94L - 16.1N 42.6W - NHC:10%

yhh

94L INVEST 241010 1200 14.0N 18.9W ATL 25 1008

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1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.  By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time.  Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Ninja_Z

或许又是一个苟活很久，但是不会有明显发展的飓风

renzhetegong

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central
subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, located off the east coast of central
Florida.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent satellite wind data show that a broad low pressure area with
winds of 30 to 35 mph has formed in association with a tropical
wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the
system's shower and thunderstorm activity is currently poorly
organized.  Some additional development could occur while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
and the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and  Friday.  By Saturday,
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further
development is unlikely after that time.  Regardless of development,
localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

冰凌蔷薇

风场有30kt，不过结构还是差一点

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some additional development is possible and a short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm could form while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo
Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.  By Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development is unlikely after that time.  Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

yhh

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
910 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance near
the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Updated:  Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure
centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago.  
However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is
elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized.  Some additional development is possible, and
a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde
Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.  On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time.  Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight.  For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112345 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024


Corrected to add probabilities

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an
area of low pressure just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development is possible tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm
could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time.  Regardless of
development, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are likely to
continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have not
gotten any better organized since yesterday.  The low is moving
into an environment that is less conducive for development, and
therefore the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be
decreasing.  This system is forecast to move westward or
west-southwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
diminished during the past 24 hours.  The low is moving into an
environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore
the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing.  
This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through much of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin