ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N
93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201456Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30C), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/210130Z-211800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8N 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 92.20E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
201951Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL
GENERALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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WTIO21 PGTW 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 92.5E TO 18.0N 89.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220930Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 220337Z GMI 89GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220245Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CENTER
WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231000Z.//
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发表于 2024-10-20 04:00
