(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AREA OF TROUGHING
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR LLCC IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 210042Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS
MODERATE (15-20KT) WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF HIGH SHEAR TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A
220006Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WEAK LLC WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS). INVEST 97W ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS.
GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND
GETTING ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND
ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY
DEVELOP 98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN GFS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
发表于 2024-10-21 12:51
发表于 2024-10-21 15:48
