LOW - 苏门答腊岛以西99B - 4.2N 92.6E

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99B INVEST 241122 0000 4.2N 92.6E IO 15 0

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数值预报系集

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Leonardo

ECMWF系集和海洋表面温度图

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ABIO10 PGTW 230030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/230030Z-231800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N
92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 222155Z SSMIS F18 91H MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED, YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WEST WIND BURST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASE II MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO PAUSE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE FAR WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC
ROTATION DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF SUMATRA. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22NOV24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.9S 53.5E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 222100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) WITH 02S FINAL WARNING
INFORMATION AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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renzhetegong

GFS系集成员分为西行和北上两大派
而ECMWF系集基本都预测西行