孟加拉湾西部低压BOB 08(91B) - 12.0N 83.5E

ygsj24

91B INVEST 241213 1200 8.5N 95.7E IO 15 0

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/200200Z-201800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N
82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WITH A PARTIAL 191629Z ASCAT
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALING 15-20 KNOTS OF WIND NEAR THE POORLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
CONVECTION HAS FORMED INTO A SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO),
HOWEVER THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED AND THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 91B IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE AND SLOWLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC, ALLOWING
FOR A SLOW CONSOLIDATION FOR 91B. GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).////
NNNN

renzhetegong

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.4N 82.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
AND 201208Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION
RESEMBLING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OVER A BROAD OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 91B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91B
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

renzhetegong

夜间ASCAT扫描

ygsj24

ygsj24

Leonardo

TPIO10 PGTW 210308

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91B (E OF INDIA)

B. 21/0230Z

C. 13.81N

D. 84.21E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

LLCC都是裸露的

ygsj24

ygsj24