TCFA - 约克角半岛以东13U(94P→96P) - 16.8S 146.1E

ygsj24

94P INVEST 250127 0600 15.7S 146.3E SHEM 15 0

ygsj24

96P INVEST 250128 0000 15.9S 145.6E SHEM 15 0

pocketbox

WTPS21 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 145 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S 147.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 58 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST NORTH OF CAIRNS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
CONSISTENTLY OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH A 272100Z
OBSERVATION OF 29 KNOT WINDS GUSTING AT 34 KNOTS WITH A DROPPING SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED, ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS
STRONGER AND MORE CONCISE WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.
//
NNNN

Leonardo

TPPS10 PGTW 280628

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96P (SE OF CAIRNS)

B. 28/0530Z

C. 17.23S

D. 146.38E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

TXPS27 KNES 280618
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96P)

B.  28/0530Z

C.  16.9S

D.  146.2E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.5/1.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -90 C. NASCENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS PRESENT. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT. SYSTEM MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON

=

ygsj24

2025 - 037 - SHF4
持续时长：18 小时
最大风速：20 节
最低气压：1003 百帕
ACE = 0

时刻（UTC）	所在纬度	所在经度	风速（节）	气压（百帕）	强度等级
2025/01/26 18:00	14.9S	146.0E	20	1003	DB
2025/01/27 00:00	15.3S	146.2E	20	1003	DB
2025/01/27 06:00	15.7S	146.3E	20	1003	DB
2025/01/27 12:00	16.1S	146.4E	20	1004	DB

pocketbox

Tropical Low 13U
Possible tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea from later in the week.

• A tropical low (13U) may develop in the northwest Coral Sea during the week, associated with a monsoon surge forecast to move through Indonesia and into the Australian region.
• From late this week the risk of this tropical low (13U) becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Low, and further increases to Moderate during Saturday.
• 13U is likely to remain slow moving in the Coral Sea during this week however there is considerable uncertainty with the motion and potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical low 16U further to the east.
  

Last updated
7 hours ago, 08:36 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 30  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 30  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 13U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

ygsj24

WTPS21 PGTW 290230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 145.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENED
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 282246Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES
THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

---

ABPW10 PGTW 290230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290230Z-290600ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9S 145.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRAILIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 282246Z ASCAT-B
PASS INDICATES THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 290230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 13U
Tropical low to impact the far north Queensland coast.

• A tropical low (13U) lies just offshore from Cairns.
• The low is likely to move away from the coast on Thursday but then move back towards the coast from Friday.
• The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone is only low. However, strong to gale-force winds and heavy rain may develop south of the low by Saturday.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 09:13 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 13U

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)