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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 04:55 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 101.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 101.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.8S 99.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.2S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.0S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.9S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 100.8E.
01FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 010200).//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 012100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING
- NR 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 101.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVELOPING
- SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED WESTWARD, PARTIALLY
- EXPOSING A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED
- LLC AND LINED UP WITH A BULLSEYE FEATURE IN THE 011433Z ASCAT PASS.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS, HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
- ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WIDE PATCH OF
- 35-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SE-SW QUADRANTS IN THE ASCAT PASS. ANALYSIS
- INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SSE.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
- DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
- STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY
- INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
- VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS
- BY TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT
- AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 102NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO
- 155NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
- A DEVELOPING SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
- TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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发表于 2025-1-31 01:47
发表于 2025-1-31 02:02
