TCFA - 纽埃东北热带低压08F(92P) - 18.4S 169.1W

理可的呆萌呆毛

92P INVEST 250218 1800 16.0S 177.4E SHEM 15 0
92P INVEST 250218 1800 16.0S 177.5W SHEM 20 1003

理可的呆萌呆毛

所以這在東半球還是西半球啊。。。

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 182259 UTC.

THERE ARE FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 177.0W
[EAST OF FIJI & N OF TONGA] AT 182100UTC ALONG THE SPCZ. SST IS
AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT IS UNDER LOW SHEAR, STRONG VORTICITY AND STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.2S
172.5W [BETWEEN NIUE AND SAMOA] AT 182100UTC.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MODERATE SHEAR AND WILL POSSIBLY ENCOUNTER
HIGH SHEAR IF IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARDS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION PERSIST
OVER THE SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.
*********************************************************************
***********

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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ABPW10 PGTW 190130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190130Z-190600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S
176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 190022Z ASCAT
METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 25-30 KNOTS
WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE LLCC, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATIONS CENTER. THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH
POLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1). TO
LOW. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

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      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.3S 177.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 190132Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA
OF POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CYCLING CONVECTION NORTHWEST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH POLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS
WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 190813 UTC.

THERE ARE FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.2S 175.3W
[EAST OF FIJI & N OF TONGA] AT 190600UTC ALONG THE SPCZ. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT IS UNDER LOW SHEAR, STRONG VORTICITY AND STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S
168.7W [BETWEEN NIUE AND SAMOA] AT 190600UTC. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MODERATE SHEAR AND WILL POSSIBLY ENCOUNTER
HIGH SHEAR AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARDS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION PERSIST
OVER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.
*********************************************************************
***********

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 192320 UTC.

THERE ARE FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 17.9S 171.9W [S OF SAMOA & NW OF NIUE] AT 192200UTC. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR AND CONVECTION IS TO the NORTH OF SUPPOSED
LLCC.
THE SYSTEM  IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG VORTICITY AND
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
[CLOSE TO NIUE] WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***********

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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ABPW10 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200200Z-200600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P, HOWEVER GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BY TAU 48 AS THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P, HOWEVER GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BY TAU 48
AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM. DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2). ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA.
2.B.(3).//
NNNN

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      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
(SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 200845 UTC.

THERE ARE FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 18.0S 171.1W [S OF SAMOA & NW OF NIUE] AT 200600UTC. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR AND CONVECTION IS TO THE EASTERN SECTOR OF
SUPPOSED LLCC.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG VORTICITY AND
WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
[CLOSE TO NIUE] WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***********

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.