MEDIUM - 约克角半岛以东22U(93P) - 14.1S 148.5E

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93P INVEST 250220 0000 12.0S 145.2E SHEM 15 0
93P INVEST 250220 0000 12.0S 145.2E SHEM 20 1006

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ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S
145.2W, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 192331Z ASCAT METOP-B
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS PORTRAY STEADY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WITH GFS AND NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING
CYCLOGENESIS BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM. DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2). ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA.
2.B.(3).//
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      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 145.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.3W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STEADY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH GFS CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 93P MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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Tropical Low 22U
Tropical low slowly forming in the northern Coral Sea but to remain well away from the Queensland coast

• A tropical low, 22U, is forecast to form off the north Queensland coast during Friday and develop further over following days in the northern Coral Sea.
• The tropical low is expected to move slowly east or southeast and remain well away from the Queensland coast for the next 7 days.
• There is a Low likelihood that 22U develops into a tropical cyclone Friday, increasing to Moderate Saturday and High from Monday.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:49 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 22  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 22  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 23  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 23  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 24  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 24  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 25  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 25  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 26  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 26  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 27  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 27  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 22U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-
LEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS
REVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.5S 148.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 148.6W, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
...
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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