科科斯群岛西南特强热带气旋第14号“考特尼”(27U/27S.Courtney) - 西行发展，风眼开出，快速爆发超预期 - MFR:120KT JTWC:130KT

1007圆规

实时云图

编扰资讯

92S INVEST 250321 1200 15.0S 112.7E SHEM 15 1009

1007圆规

Tropical Low 27U
Tropical low 27U forming well north of the Pilbara coast and likely to move to the southwest to remain off the coast in coming days.

• A tropical low 27U is expected to form well north of the WA coast during the weekend.
• 27U is forecast to move slowly south at first then track to the southwest early next week.
• There is high confidence that 27U will remain well off the Pilbara coast while developing slowly early next week.
• The risk of 27U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate on Tuesday (35-45%) and High (55%) on Thursday.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 11:18 am AEDT

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Mon 24 Mar 11:00 am

Mon 24 Mar 11:00 pm

Tue 25 Mar 11:00 am

Tue 25 Mar 11:00 pm

Wed 26 Mar 11:00 am

Wed 26 Mar 11:00 pm

Thu 27 Mar 11:00 am

Thu 27 Mar 11:00 pm

Fri 28 Mar 11:00 am

Fri 28 Mar 11:00 pm

Sat 29 Mar 11:00 am

Tropical Low 27U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

15% Low

25% Moderate

25% Moderate

30% Moderate

45% Moderate

55% High

55% High

55% High

55% High

55% High

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 221400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/221400Z-221800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S
115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 220546Z AMSR2 89H DEPICT A BROAD AND
POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED,
DEVELOPING BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

9916-Bart

看起来很不错


GFS预计222小时后达到巅峰971

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/231400Z-231800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.5S 115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A
231102Z SSMIS 89H DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED STEADY
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS, GEFS, AND ECENS
PREDICTING THAT 92S WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 27U
Tropical low 27U forming well north of the Pilbara and will develop further during the week as it moves southwest.

• Tropical low 27U is forming well north of the WA coast.
• 27U is forecast to move to the southwest during the week and remain well off the Pilbara coast.
• Gradual development is expected early in the week, with an increasing chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from mid-week. The risk increases to Moderate from Tuesday evening and High from Thursday.
• There are no direct impacts expected to the WA coast.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:41 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Tue 25  Mar 12:00 am

Tue 25  Mar 12:00 pm

Wed 26  Mar 12:00 am

Wed 26  Mar 12:00 pm

Thu 27  Mar 12:00 am

Thu 27  Mar 12:00 pm

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 am

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 27U

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 114.2E TO 17.2S 110.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 114.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVOISOULY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 114.0E APPROXIMATELTY 469
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRAILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231720Z ASMR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GRADIENT-
INDUCED 25-30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242200Z.//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/232200Z-241800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232151ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRAILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231720Z ASMR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GRADIENT-
INDUCED 25-30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Ck.

发展还是不错的，马上就能命名了

桑美和伊欧凯

Ck. 发表于 2025-3-24 11:52
发展还是不错的，马上就能命名了

中心偏离现象比26S好多了

pocketbox

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:53 pm WST on Monday 24 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 16.0S 112.2E,that is 690 km
north northwest of Exmouth and 940 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving
southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Tropical low 27U has consolidated along the monsoon trough well north of the
Pilbara. It is forecast to gradually develop this week as it tracks west to
southwest over the Indian Ocean. It will not impact the Western Australian
coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Monday 24 March.

---

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 24/03/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 112.2E
Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (230 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 185 nm (345 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/1200: 16.2S 111.9E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  997
+12:  24/1800: 16.3S 111.5E:     060 (115):  035  (065):  997
+18:  25/0000: 16.3S 111.1E:     065 (125):  035  (065):  997
+24:  25/0600: 16.3S 110.7E:     075 (140):  035  (065):  997
+36:  25/1800: 16.5S 109.8E:     100 (185):  035  (065):  997
+48:  26/0600: 17.1S 108.4E:     115 (210):  035  (065):  998
+60:  26/1800: 17.6S 106.6E:     140 (265):  040  (070):  997
+72:  27/0600: 18.0S 104.4E:     150 (280):  040  (075):  995
+96:  28/0600: 17.7S 100.1E:     200 (375):  050  (095):  989
+120: 29/0600: 18.3S  96.2E:     245 (455):  050  (095):  988
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 27U lies well to the northwest of Western Australia and is
forecast to slowly develop as it tracks west-southwest over the Indian Ocean.  

The system was located using animated visible satellite imagery in addition to
a scatterometry pass at 0151 UTC. The scatterometry pass indicated a poorly
defined circulation, elongated and was significantly rain-affected in the
southwest quadrant due to deep convection. As such there is only moderate
confidence in position.

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern yielding a 3-hourly average DT of 2.5,
however constraints result in FT/CI of 2.0.  Scatterometry at 0151 UTC
indicated 30-35 knots in the southwest quadrant. There are currently no
objective aids to compare to. Analysis intensity set at 35 knots in the
southwest quadrant.

The environmental steering is consistent in models, with west to southwest
motion forecast throughout the week due a ridge to the south. Although a weak
upper trough does move over the southern Indian Ocean, it is not expected to
amplify and significantly affect steering, perhaps only enough to result in
brief southwestward dip in motion and slight reduction in deep-layer mean
shear. There is good consistency in models for the system to continue to the
west-southwest.  

A subjective assessment of the environment suggests that intensity will depend
largely on the deep-layer shear affecting the system and whether convection can
develop upshear. It is unlikely ever to encounter a low shear environment,
however moderate shear of 15-20 knots are likely for periods of time to allow
organisation and development to occur. Sea surface temperatures are warm along
the track around 27C until next weekend as the system drops south of 20S.
Moisture is abundant, though there is indication that later in the week dry air
may wrap to the north of the system as it becomes further removed from the
monsoon trough. Model guidance remains mixed for intensity for 27U, with
ensemble guidance scenarios ranging from category 1 to category 4 intensity.
The majority of members fall between 40 and 60 knots. Current forecast is for
the system to intensify up to category 2 intensity, however a category 3 or 4
peak intensity cannot be ruled out.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 24	tropical low	16.0S	112.2E	75
+6hr	8 pm March 24	tropical low	16.2S	111.9E	95
+12hr	2 am March 25	tropical low	16.3S	111.5E	115
+18hr	8 am March 25	tropical low	16.3S	111.1E	125
+24hr	2 pm March 25	tropical low	16.3S	110.7E	140
+36hr	2 am March 26	tropical low	16.5S	109.8E	185
+48hr	2 pm March 26	tropical low	17.1S	108.4E	210
+60hr	2 am March 27	1	17.6S	106.6E	265
+72hr	2 pm March 27	1	18.0S	104.4E	280