西澳以北一级热带气旋“黛安娜”(28U/28S.Dianne) - 近岸获名

933954

编扰资讯

93S INVEST 250324 1800 15.5S 120.4E SHEM 15 0

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ABIO10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250600Z-251800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25MAR25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 110.0E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S
121.2E, APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250408Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICT POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250044Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A
SMALL REGION OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-
31C) SSTS, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT DEEPENS NORTHWEST OF BROOME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

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Tropical Low 28U
Tropical low 28U to develop in the monsoon trough off northwest Kimberley coast and move towards the coast this weekend.

• A weak tropical low 28U may form within the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley coast on Wednesday or Thursday.
• 28U is likely to move south towards the coast, with an increasing chance of development depending on the length of time over water.
• The risk of 28U being a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate (25-35%) from Friday to Sunday.
• By later Sunday or Monday 28U is likely to be over land, reducing the risk of being at tropical cyclone intensity.
• Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely over the north Kimberley associated with the monsoon flow regardless of the development of 28U. However, should the low develop it would focus the region of greatest storm activity and hence rainfall totals.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:51 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 27  Mar 12:00 am

Thu 27  Mar 12:00 pm

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 am

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 31  Mar 12:00 am

Mon 31  Mar 12:00 pm

Tue 1  Apr 12:00 am

Tue 1  Apr 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 28U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

10 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

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Tropical Low 28U
Tropical low, 28U may form off the northwest Kimberley coast and move over the coast by the weekend.

• Tropical low, 28U may form within the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley coast overnight tonight or Thursday morning.
• 28U is forecast to move towards the Kimberley coast on Thursday and Friday, before taking a track to the south later Friday and crossing the coast during the weekend.
• The system may strengthen over the next few days with a Moderate risk on Friday and Saturday that it may develop into a tropical cyclone.
• By Sunday, 28U is likely to be overland, reducing the risk of being a tropical cyclone.
• Enhanced thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall may occur over the north Kimberley associated with the monsoon flow regardless of the development of 28U.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:44 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 am

Fri 28  Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 29  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 30  Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 31  Mar 12:00 am

Mon 31  Mar 12:00 pm

Tue 1  Apr 12:00 am

Tue 1  Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 2  Apr 12:00 am

Wed 2  Apr 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 28U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

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ABIO10 PGTW 261430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/261430Z-261800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26MAR25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 260900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9S 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION OVER A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS CURRENTLY
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF
AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

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IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Thursday 27 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 13.9S 121.4E, that is 380 km
west northwest of Kuri Bay and 450 km north northwest of Derby and moving north
northeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U is developing to the northwest of the Kimberley. It is
expected to strengthen before crossing the Kimberley coast either Friday night
or Saturday morning, most likely between Cape Leveque and Kuri Bay. There is a
Moderate risk on Friday and Saturday that 28U could develop into a tropical
cyclone. By Sunday, 28U is likely to be over land and weakening.

A severe weather warning is current for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL.
Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 27 March.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 27	tropical low	13.9S	121.4E	55
+6hr	2 pm March 27	tropical low	13.9S	122.1E	80
+12hr	8 pm March 27	tropical low	14.0S	122.7E	90
+18hr	2 am March 28	tropical low	14.3S	123.2E	115
+24hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	14.6S	123.6E	130
+36hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	15.8S	124.1E	170
+48hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	17.2S	124.3E	220
+60hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	18.6S	124.3E	245
+72hr	8 am March 30	tropical low	19.7S	124.3E	275

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WTXS21 PGTW 270500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 121.0E TO 15.9S 124.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
252 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE,
DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z
ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. OVER THE
COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO
A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, WITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
(25-30 KNOTS), THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A STRONGER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 18. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280500Z.//
NNNN

WTXS21 PGTW 270500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 121.0E TO 15.9S 124.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
252 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE,
DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z
ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. OVER THE
COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO
A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, WITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
(25-30 KNOTS), THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A STRONGER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 18. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280500Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION IN REFERENCE TO THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA.//
NNNN

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IDW24200

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:55 pm WST on Thursday 27 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone risk for the northwest Kimberley coast, between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay, including Derby .

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 28U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South 121.8 degrees East, estimated to be 350 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and 440 kilometres north northwest of Derby.

Movement: east northeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U is developing to the northwest of the Kimberley. It is expected to strengthen before crossing the Kimberley coast either Friday night or Saturday morning, most likely between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay. There is now a High risk on Friday and early Saturday that 28U could develop into a tropical cyclone. By Sunday, 28U is likely to be over land and weakening.

Hazards:
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 kilometres per hour likely in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay during Friday evening and Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in parts of the northern and western Kimberley from Friday, extending further inland during the weekend.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 27	tropical low	13.8S	121.8E	35
+6hr	8 pm March 27	tropical low	13.8S	122.3E	60
+12hr	2 am March 28	tropical low	14.0S	122.7E	75
+18hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	14.4S	123.1E	105
+24hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	14.9S	123.4E	135
+36hr	2 am March 29	1	16.3S	123.8E	165
+48hr	2 pm March 29	tropical low	17.7S	123.9E	180
+60hr	2 am March 30	tropical low	18.9S	123.8E	210
+72hr	2 pm March 30	tropical low	19.8S	124.0E	235

ygsj24

IDW24200

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:47 pm WST on Thursday 27 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone risk for the northwest Kimberley coast, between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay from Friday night.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay including Derby.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 28U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South 122.4 degrees East, estimated to be 295 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and 410 kilometres north northwest of Derby.

Movement: east at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U is developing to the northwest of the Kimberley. It is expected to turn to the south on Friday and may reach tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the Kimberley coast overnight Friday night or Saturday morning, most likely north of Derby between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay. Later Saturday 28U is likely to be weakening over land.

Hazards:
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 kilometres per hour likely to develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay during Friday evening and Saturday morning, possibly extending as far east as Mitchell Plateau. Gales are less likely at Derby, the highest risk period being during Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in parts of the northern and western Kimberley from Friday, extending further inland during the weekend.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Friday 28 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

---

AXAU02 APRF 271328
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1327 UTC 27/03/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 28U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.8S
LONGITUDE: 122.4E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST (084 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 5 KNOTS (10 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  27/1800: 14.0S 122.9E:     035 (070):  030  (055):  994
+12:  28/0000: 14.4S 123.2E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  992
+18:  28/0600: 14.9S 123.5E:     055 (105):  040  (075):  990
+24:  28/1200: 15.6S 123.7E:     065 (115):  040  (075):  990
+36:  29/0000: 17.0S 123.7E:     080 (150):  040  (075):  991
+48:  29/1200: 18.3S 123.6E:     095 (175):  025  (045):  998
+60:  30/0000: 19.3S 123.6E:     110 (205):  025  (045):  998
+72:  30/1200: 19.9S 124.1E:     130 (240):  020  (035): 1001
+96:  31/1200:             :              :            :
+120: 01/1200:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 28U IS DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHWEST KIMBERLEY COAST AND EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 24-36H.

POSITION BASED UPON SSMIS MICROWAVE AT 1007UTC THAT SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION, CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK.

INTENSITY 30KN BASED PRIMARILY ON SCATTEROMETRY (HY2B AT 0730UTC), SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN DVORAK.

DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT=2.0 BASED ON A ~0.2-0.3 WRAP ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN AND
WITHIN    DEGREE SHEAR PATTERN. ONLY 18H SINCE T1 DEFINED BUT MET ALSO IN THE
RANGE OF 2.0 FROM D 24-HOUR TREND. FI/CI 2.0/2.0. NO OBJECTIVE AIDS AVAILABLE
AS YET.

DEVELOPMENT IS FAVOURED BY MOIST LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL INFLOW OVER HIGH SSTS
~30-31C BUT IS BEING HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WEST OF THE CENTRE AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
MOVEMENT TOWARDS A LOWER SHEAR REGION, A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE CURRENT EAST SOUTHEAST MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED THE MONSOONAL FLOW. A
SUBTLE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS A MID-LATITUDE MOVES
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO BE SOUTHERLY WITHIN 12H
TOWARDS THE COAST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK TO MAKE
LANDFALL NORTH OF DERBY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WATCH POINT
REMAINS FOR THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY SOME EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THAT SUGGESTS A TRACK NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA THAT WOULD
KEEP IT OVER WATER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING IT TO DEVELOP FURTHER BEFORE CROSSING
THE WEST KIMBERLEY COAST.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 27/1930 UTC.=

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 27	tropical low	13.8S	122.4E	45
+6hr	2 am March 28	tropical low	14.0S	122.9E	70
+12hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	14.4S	123.2E	85
+18hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	14.9S	123.5E	105
+24hr	8 pm March 28	1	15.6S	123.7E	115
+36hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	17.0S	123.7E	150
+48hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	18.3S	123.6E	175
+60hr	8 am March 30	tropical low	19.3S	123.6E	205
+72hr	8 pm March 30	tropical low	19.9S	124.1E	240

pocketbox

IDW24200

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 11:48 pm WST on Thursday 27 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone risk for the northwest Kimberley coast, between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay from Friday night.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay including Derby.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 28U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South 122.6 degrees East, estimated to be 270 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and 395 kilometres north northwest of Derby.

Movement: east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U is developing to the northwest of the Kimberley. It is currently moving to the east but expected to turn to the south during Friday. It is forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the Kimberley coast overnight Friday night or Saturday morning, most likely north of Derby between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay. Later Saturday and during Sunday 28U is likely to be weakening over land.

Hazards:
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 kilometres per hour likely to develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay during Friday evening and Saturday morning, possibly extending as far east as Mitchell Plateau. Gales are less likely at Derby, the highest risk period being during Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in parts of the northern and western Kimberley from Friday, extending further inland during the weekend.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday 28 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm March 27	tropical low	13.9S	122.6E	45
+6hr	5 am March 28	tropical low	14.2S	123.0E	70
+12hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	14.6S	123.3E	85
+18hr	5 pm March 28	1	15.2S	123.6E	100
+24hr	11 pm March 28	1	15.9S	123.7E	115
+36hr	11 am March 29	tropical low	17.3S	123.6E	140
+48hr	11 pm March 29	tropical low	18.5S	123.5E	160
+60hr	11 am March 30	tropical low	19.5S	123.7E	200
+72hr	11 pm March 30	tropical low	20.0S	124.3E	245